-Analysis-
BOGOTÁ — Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a war for territory in Ukraine, on our continent, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro wants to annex the would-be disputed territory of Esequibo, which belongs to its eastern neighbor, Guyana.
It is hardly a minor matter. In fact, the territory accounts for two-thirds of Guyana’s land mass and 280,000 of its population of 800,000! It also is home to much of its most valuable natural resources.
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Both dictators — who are also, well, friends — have justified their expansionist claims with dubious historical and cultural rationales.
Putin insists he marched into Ukraine to conserve the unity of a greater, historical, Russian community threatened by an expansionist West. Maduro refuses in turn to recognize an arbitration ruling from 1899 that set the present border between Venezuela and Guyana, and says Venezuela must encompass all the territory of the Captaincy General of Venezuela, the administrative division of the Spanish empire that included the region of Esequibo.
Beyond the bombast and declarations, Venezuela’s dictator clearly wants a piece of Guyana’s oil and minerals, while also using a conflict to distract Venezuelans from the chaos in their own country, for which the Maduro government is responsible.
Referendum and braggadocio
Guyana’s is, as it happens, the world’s fastest growing economy right now. Its GDP grew 22% in 2022, a figure expected to reach 38% in 2023 (compared, say, to a projected 1% for Colombia). This is largely due to oil production, as Guyana is set to increase its daily output of 400,000 barrels to more than one million by 2027.
Maduro, like most dictators, has no intention of asking the people of Guyana what they think.
To justify his move, Maduro recently organized a sham referendum where a majority of ‘the people’ approved Venezuela’s decision to annex Esequibo. Various observers have pointed out that the participation rate in that vote was low — very low — and needless to say, Maduro, like most dictators, has no intention of asking the people of Guyana what they think about a move that could lead to the veritable ruin of the nation.
With his referendum and his braggadocio, Maduro is upending the diplomatic agreements signed with Britain (the former imperial power in Guyana) and the international community at large. These decisions require that Venezuela would respect the rulings of the International Court at The Hague about the outlines of its borders with Guyana.
All for oil
Interestingly, Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez, always said he had no interest in Esequibo. But that, of course, was before all the oil was found there!
Some analysts believe Maduro is not preparing a military action, but merely looking to foment a crisis or emergency at home that would allow him to postpone the presidential elections scheduled for next year. His approval rating is estimated to be below 15%, so he would surely lose, ceteris paribus..
Indeed, any invasion he might order would seek — not unlike the 1982 invasion of the Falklands ordered by the Argentine military junta — to distract Venezuelans from the Bolivarian regime‘s incompetence and corruption.
The eventual reaction of Latin American states to any aggression would be of great importance here, especially from Guyana’s other neighbor Brazil. One also wonders about Colombia’s president, the socialist Gustavo Petro, who has sought the best possible ties with Maduro. Will he back his compadre in a brazen coup de main against a weaker country, and for what..? For oil, the worst enemy of the planet we all share?
