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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Does France’s Macron Have The Clout To Make Putin Budge On Ukraine?

The French president wants to convince Vladimir Putin to halt military deployment around Ukraine. But some in Moscow believe the Russian president is only interested in negotiating with the U.S. about the wider global balance of power.

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Israel-Palestine War

ICC Arrest Warrants: The Demise Of Netanyahu — Or The ICC?

The announcement of the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor that he would seek arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and defense minister, as well as three Hamas leaders, provoked indignant reactions in Israel and the U.S. and revealed the rifts between the West and the global South.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Moscow To Kyiv To Normandy, 80 Years Of Shared Victory Are Set To Vanish

The competing May 8 and May 9 World War II victory celebrations, and an upcoming D-Day snub to Vladimir Putin, show how uncertain the future appears right now. Perhaps even more uncertain than the Cold War.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Tahrir Square To UCLA: How Crackdowns On Popular Protests Can Backfire

The context and scale are different, but there are common methods in the suppression of demonstrations in the Arab Spring in 2011 and crackdowns against pro-Palestinian groups on university campuses in the U.S. Will President Biden, like Hosni Mubarak 13 years ago, lose power as a result?

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Israel-Palestine War

Rafah Bloodbath Or Sudden Truce? The Last Temptation Of Benjamin Netanyahu

The Israeli prime minister has foreign and domestic pressure to accept a ceasefire deal, but he may be set to make the bloodiest decision of the war to date in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Another Ceasefire Rejected? Why Gaza War Is Good For Netanyahu — And Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders both have deeply cynical reasons to prolong hostilities. Meanwhile, it’s in the self-interest of both the U.S. and Arab regimes to try all avenues to broker a ceasefire to ease the suffering of those caught in the crossfire.

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Geopolitics

Iran’s Lesson For The U.S.: Israel Is The True Problem Child Of The Middle East

Have the ruling institutions in the United States learned the lesson and realized that the main means of confronting Iran’s influence — if they really wanted to — is to put pressure on Israel.

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Israel-Palestine War

Arab Regimes And Gaza: Caught Between Israel’s War Crimes And “The American Trap”

Washington has vetoed Palestine’s full membership to the United Nations and is using talk of the “two-state solution” to distract from Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Pushed by the U.S. to normalize ties with Israel, what will Arab states do?

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Russia-Ukraine War

Preventing A Putin Victory: Washington’s $61 Billion Bet On Ukraine

It has taken months for Ukraine to be able to celebrate the U.S. approval of a much-needed aid package. Now that the House of Representatives has voted in favour, what is crucial is the timing of the arms delivery. Because the aid package comes late, but hopefully not too late for Ukraine to reverse its losses on the battlefield, writes Pierre Haski for France Inter.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Netanyahu’s “Iran Diversion” — Why It Can’t Hide His Gaza War Crimes

By helping to intercept Iran’s counter attack against Israel, the U.S. and Western allies, along with Jordan, have deprived Benjamin Netanyahu of a pretext to expand the war and to divert attention from his actions in Gaza.

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Economy Geopolitics

Power, Wealth, Ambivalence — How China’s Contradictions Weigh On The World

Just because war appears more likely to spread to Europe or the Middle East than Asia, we should not forget China’s enormous weight. But does Beijing want to do with it?

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Israel-Palestine War

The “Humanitarian” Pier Is Really About Biden’s Election — And Colonizing Gaza

The U.S. pier and sea corridor aims at isolating Gaza from its Arab neighbors, paving the way for the incoming authority, and facilitating attacks on the resistance.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Can Netanyahu Ignore The Whole World?

As Western leaders criticize Netanyahu and his war in Gaza, the Israeli Prime Minister apparently remains fully confident in forging ahead with a hardline that leaves a brutal human toll.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Why The Biden-Netanyahu Clash Over Gaza Is Bound To Escalate

U.S. President Joe Biden said this weekend that “Netanyahu is doing Israel more harm than good”: a phrase that speaks volumes about the lack of trust between the two men, especially still without a ceasefire, and humanitarian aid blocked from entering an increasingly desperate Gaza Strip.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

The Biden-Trump Rematch, European Nightmares And Macron’s “Cowardice” Warning

After Super Tuesday, Americans (and the world) are now virtually assured of another Biden-Trump showdown in November. It’s a chilling reminder to Europe that their fate is tied too closely to the whims of U.S. politics.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Will Biden v. Trump Be All About Ukraine? It’s Already Begun

With U.S. elections slated for November, support to Ukraine is becoming a divisive electoral issue. Wednesday’s vote in the U.S. Senate over Ukraine aid will be telling, but it won’t end there.

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Israel-Palestine War

Biden’s Sanctions On Israeli Settlers Send A Double Message

By sanctioning violent settlers in the West Bank, U.S. President Biden aims to reassure voters unhappy with his support for Israel, and to push Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire agreement.

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Economy Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Why Biden May Be Just As Bad For U.S.-Mexico Trade As Trump

U.S. President Biden has quietly turned his Republican predecessor’s anti-foreign posturing into economic policies that strongly favor domestic manufacturing. Does Mexico, which depends on massive exports to the U.S., have anything to look forward to in the upcoming presidential elections?

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Geopolitics

Here’s How The U.S. And Iran Could Slip Into A War That Neither One Wants

The death of three U.S. soldiers has raised the stakes in a low-simmering, but constant escalation between Washington and Tehran that could explode from the shadows of the war in Gaza — even if by pure accident.

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Israel-Palestine War

How The Biden-Netanyahu Standoff Could Sway The Political Destiny Of Each Man

The rising tensions between U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are about different visions of the geopolitics of the Middle East — but the stakes are also personal for each leader.

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Eyes on the U.S. Israel-Palestine War

Is Israel’s “New Phase” In Gaza Just A Bluff?

Ahead of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s arrival, Israeli officials declared that the army will shift to a more targeted campaign in Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu may just be bidding his time.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Donald Trump’s Footprint Will Appear Across The World Through 2024 — At Least

It’s early January and already, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s presence can be felt on every current geopolitical situation. With his return in the White House becoming less and less unlikely, leaders are already factoring in what a second Trump era would mean for the world.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Playing For A Ukraine-Russia Draw? Risk Of A Grave Miscalculation By The West

Ukraine’s Western allies seem to be sticking to a strategy of giving the country just enough weapons to defend itself, but not enough to win.

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Ideas Israel-Palestine War

What Biden’s Critique Of Netanyahu Means For The War — And The Fate Of The Region

U.S. President Joe Biden’s tough words for Benjamin Netanyahu cannot really be reconciled, and point to a paradox: Netanyahu may be the warlord whom the army obeys, but he is also a politician whom the vast majority of his fellow citizens would like to see leave.

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Economy Future Geopolitics

Why The U.S. Trade Blockade Can’t Stop China’s Sprint For All-Powerful AI

If computing power becomes a major tool for superpowers like China and the U.S., then what does the latest U.S. technology blockade mean for the race to a more powerful AI? Honk Kong-based daily The Initium looks at the nuclear race of our time, with chips as the modern-day equivalent of enriched uranium.

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Israel-Palestine War

Why The U.S. Lost Its Leverage In The Middle East — And May Never Get It Back

In the Israel-Hamas war, Qatar now plays the key role in negotiations, while the United States appears increasingly disengaged. Shifts in the region and beyond require that Washington move quickly or risk ceding influence to China and others for the long term.

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Israel-Palestine War

How Biden’s Mideast Stance Weakens Israel And Emboldens Iran

The West’s decision to pressure Israel over Gaza, and indulge Iran’s violent and troublesome regime, follows the U.S. Democrats’ line with the Middle East: just keep us out of your murderous affairs.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Americans Don’t Understand Biden — And Biden Doesn’t Trust Netanyahu

Challenged back home, U.S. President Joe Biden has just published an op-ed in the Washington Post in which he outlines a future for the Palestinian territories that’s different from the one envisaged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and threatens violent settlers in the West Bank with sanctions. But where are the teeth?

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Israel-Palestine War

Israel’s Assault On Southern Gaza Will Be One Step Too Far For Washington

Launching a ground invasion in the south of Gaza, where residents have been forced to flee, will be virtually impossible for the Biden Administration to accept.

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Geopolitics

The Xi-Biden Summit: Can They Put An End To All Those World War III Scenarios?

The highly anticipated face-to-face between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping is about more than just global trade, it’s about putting the brakes on humanity sliding into total chaos and conflict.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Three Scenarios Where The U.S., China Or Russia Winds Up Stronger After The Gaza War

Washington, Moscow and Beijing can all, in different ways, emerge stronger from the war in Gaza war, says French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi. The U.S. has been more present in the Middle East since Oct. 7 — but so has Russia, while China is keeping relatively quiet.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Friends, Enemies And Public Opinion: Inside Biden’s Middle East Balancing Act

The United States has found itself at the forefront of a conflict that the whole world is following. President Joe Biden faces the pull of public opinion, the threat of Iranian action, and the escalation of the Israeli state.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Negotiate, Talk, Negotiate — And A First Small Sign That Israel Is Listening

In Qatar, Egypt, Paris or on the phone, negotiators are busy trying to secure the release of hostages, push for “humanitarian pauses”, and prepare for the political aftermath of the war. Meanwhile, the war rages on in Gaza.

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Israel-Palestine War

Reoccupation Of Gaza? A Crack Opens In The Airtight Israel-U.S. Alliance

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s mention of “indefinite” control of security in Gaza does not sit well with Washington. Biden has a growing number of reasons to start pushing back against Israel’s war and post-war aims.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

One Month Of Israel-Hamas War — How Our World Has Changed

Marking one month of war in the Middle East, French political commentator Pierre Haski takes stock of three major geopolitical consequences.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Why Israel Will Agree To A “Humanitarian Pause” — But Nothing More

Calls for a “humanitarian pause” are multiplying as the war rages on for almost a month, but the West is careful not to talk about a ceasefire, which Israel totally rejects. Where does that leave us in a search for a way out?

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Ideas

America’s Dilemma: Between Middle East Quagmire And The “Real” Threat In China

In the wake of Hamas’s attack on Israel, the United States, often projected as no longer wanting to be the region’s policeman, finds itself deploying aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean and conducting F16 raids against Iranian targets in Syria. But the epoch-shifting challenge is elsewhere.

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Geopolitics

Israeli Defense Minister Presents Three-Step War Plan, Confirms Ground Offensive Is Coming

Also: Russia and Iran blast Biden’s speech, Aid blocked at Rafah crossing, Explosion at Gaza’s oldest church. And more…

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Geopolitics Ideas

Why Joe Biden’s Visit To Israel Was Such A Deep Diplomatic Failure

The American president succeeded in obtaining humanitarian corridors through Gaza, and supported Israel’s claims that it wasn’t responsible for bombing a Gaza hospital. But in the Arab world, he consolidated his image as Israel’s main supporter, and lost the political battle for public opinion.

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Geopolitics

How The Gaza Hospital Bombing Will Change The Course Of The War

The strike on Gaza’s Al-Ahli hospital, which left hundreds dead, has changed the climate of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, even as the two sides shift the blame to each other. Calls for a ceasefire multiply as Joe Biden arrives in Israel.

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