–Analysis–
PARIS — “Netanyahu is doing more harm than good to Israel.” The sentence could have been uttered by one of the Israeli prime minister’s liberal opponents, but it was said by U.S. President Joe Biden, Israel’s leading supporter in the war against Hamas, since Oct. 7.
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In an interview with the U.S. news channel MSNBC on Saturday, Biden went even further, denouncing Netanyahu’s military strategy and excessive civilian casualties in Gaza, and concluding “it’s contrary to what Israel stands for. And I think it’s a big mistake. So I want to see a ceasefire.”
These were strong words, the culmination of a series of critical remarks by a U.S. president visibly frustrated by his Israeli ally. The problem is that after these words, nothing happened. No ceasefire, no change in strategy and no acknowledgement of any disagreement with Biden. Nothing.
Trust issues
This raises questions about the role assumed by the U.S. president, about his real influence or his reluctance to use that influence to change the course of events in Gaza.
We have to understand two elements. First, relations between Biden and Netanyahu were never based on trust. In 2015, the Israeli prime minister even went behind the back of the Democratic administration, of which Biden was vice president, to ask Congress refuse to ratify a nuclear agreement with Iran.
Biden is searching for a point of equilibrium.
There is no shortage of contentious issues between Netanyahu and the Democrats, and the Israeli prime minister must pray for Donald Trump’s victory in November, with the hope that he will still be in power by then.
Ramadan and U.S. elections
The second element is that Biden is seeking a balance between his unwavering and longstanding support for the state of Israel, and his thinly-veiled hostility toward its prime minister. It’s not easy to support a country at war when you don’t trust its leaders. The result is searching for evasive strategies to keep from being dragged where Biden doesn’t want to go.
Take humanitarian aid, for example: Israel is blocking convoys of humanitarian aid; hundreds of trucks are waiting in Egypt while the people of Gaza say they are starving. Instead of twisting Netanyahu’s arm, Biden imagines alternatives: parachuting aide despite its inefficiency, and now a floating port off the Gaza coast — a long and costly process, when all that is needed is opening the border.
The other evasion is political: the White House received Benny Gantz, a Netanyahu rival, former Israel Defense Force Chief of Staff and member of the Ministry of Defense, without the approval of the furious prime minister. Washington is clearly playing Gantz off Netanyahu for the post-war period, when it comes to launching a political process.
The problem is that these subtleties are overshadowed by images of the carnage, for which a group of Democratic voters believe Biden is an accomplice. While there is still no ceasefire, and the start of Ramadan puts Jerusalem and the Temple Mount in great danger, the U.S. runs the risk of being overwhelmed by an ally it deems irresponsible.
Between Biden and Netanyahu, the worst may be yet to come.
