-Analysis-
PARIS — Yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Thursday targeting violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank: it’s a first, and it’s significant. The measure is admittedly limited in scope, affecting the financial assets in the U.S. and the freedom to travel of four people initially; others are expected to follow.
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But the political significance of the measure has not escaped anyone. It has two targets: first, Democratic voters, many of whom denounce Biden’s support for Israel, and to whom he promises greater balance. Yesterday, the presidential candidate was due to visit Michigan, home to the largest Arab-American community, which is highly critical of his administration.
The second target of the message is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition includes representatives of the settlement movement, the very ones targeted by the Biden’s decision. The National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, lives in the West Bank settlement of Kyriat Arba, a stronghold of the most hard-line settlers. It is where Baruch Goldstein, the perpetrator of the 1994 Hebron massacre, the first blow to the Oslo Peace Accords, is buried and venerated.
Nothing is certain
The executive order comes as Netanyahu faces with a decisive political choice: a ceasefire plan is on the table, allowing the release of more hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and an end, albeit temporary, to the ordeal of Gaza civilians.
But Ben Gvir, leader of one of the coalition’s far-right parties, has warned Netanyahu: if he signs, the coalition will fall apart and the Prime Minister will lose power, with the risk of never regaining it. Some analysts believe that the far-right leader is bluffing. But nothing is less certain.
Netanyahu knows that many Israelis want him to sign to save other hostages, and the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will arrive in Tel Aviv on Saturday to push for an agreement. The measure against the settlers supports this effort.
The right stategy?
Why did Biden choose the settler issue? Because it’s the most complex one on the road to a Palestinian state, which is the objective Biden repeats in every speech. At the time of the Oslo Accords, there were 120,000 settlers in the territories occupied since 1967. Today there are 700,000, which shows how three decades of failure to find a solution have been used to create a fait accompli.
By all accounts, the West Bank is now on the brink of explosion, notably due to settlers’ violent actions. And while the White House has supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas since Oct. 7, there is no justification for this violence in the West Bank.
This is therefore an important political moment for the U.S. in this conflict: it is increasingly caught in the regional extension of the crisis, it is frustrated by political relations with Netanyahu, and Biden is under pressure in his election campaign. He doesn’t have much time left to turn this situation around, and prove that his strategy is the right one.
