-Analysis-
PARIS — His shadow already hangs over virtually every international political issue. His very presence weighs on the major conflicts of the moment, in Ukraine and in Gaza. And this reality, if things remain on this course, will only grow larger as the year moves forward.
We’re talking, of course, about Donald Trump, whose return as president of the United States, ahead of this year’s election, can no longer be ruled out. National polls show him ahead of his likely Democratic rival, incumbent Joe Biden, and, above all, leading in the majority of swing states that will likely determine who wins on November 5.
Of course, Trump is not yet the nominee of the Republican Party, and will have to go through the primary circuit, which starts on January 15 in Iowa. But the former president still enjoys a comfortable lead over his rivals, even if former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is fast becoming a credible alternative.
Vengeance and panic
Trump appears to be immune from critics, despite his repeated lawsuits, the supreme courts of two states that have already declared him ineligible to appear on the ballot because of his support for the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol. And it’s this invulnerability that is panicking leaders across the world.
Donald Trump was president for four years, and if he’s back in the White House, it will be with a vengeance. He has an ultraconservative agenda, still inspired by his “America First” slogan, and his recent racially charged outbursts about immigrants “poisoning American blood” are hardly reassuring.
But it’s above all his vision of international relations and his unpredictable style that most terrify the world — his allies, above all. Biden’s election had the merit of revitalizing U.S. alliances in the rest of the world: in Europe with NATO, which Trump had threatened to leave; in Asia with South Korea and Japan; and giving Taiwan reassurance in the face of Chinese ambitions.
Netanyahu is also rooting for Trump over Biden
The foreign policy of a second Trump presidency is likely to be the deconstruction of Biden’s four years: rejection of all climate commitments, contempt for cumbersome allies, transactional diplomacy, and rapprochement with autocrats as he did in his first term.
Putin and Bibi
What are the consequences for ongoing conflicts? Clearly, Vladimir Putin, for one, is playing for time and banking on Trump’s victory to help him in Ukraine. Current U.S. support for Kyiv is already made difficult by the Republicans in Congress, and Putin has every reason to hope that it will cease with Trump back in charge.
If he manages to hold on to power between now and November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also rooting for Trump over Biden who talks about the two-state solution.
And how does the risk of a Trump victory look to the Europeans? They have everything to lose. The consequences for Ukraine, NATO and economic relations are such that the stakes are almost existential.
Europe’s strategic autonomy, which has largely remained a slogan until now, will then become a necessity: does Europe have the capacity, and above all the political will to go it alone? If we don’t find the answer before, it may be forced upon us after November 5.
