-Analysis-
PARIS — Let’s start with the premise that neither Iran nor the U.S. want a war with each other — at least that’s been the assumption of most analysts since October 7. Let’s also assume, and there’s little debate on this point either, that the armed groups that have been attacking U.S. targets in the Middle East for some time now are all linked to Iran.
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These two propositions can seem contradictory, but they simply reflect a messy world that is rarely black-and-white. This is even more the case after the death of three American soldiers on Sunday, in a drone strike against a U.S. military base on Jordanian territory, near the borders of Iraq and Syria.
U.S. President Joe Biden has accused Iran of being behind the groups who carried out the attack, and promised a retaliation, according to the timing and modality of Washington’s choosing. Meanwhile, Iran sought to distance itself from the strike, publicly denying any responsibility.
These are the first American deaths in an act of war since October 7. Two commandos had perished in the Red Sea earlier this month in a drowning, not because of an enemy action.
In the midst of the U.S. election, the situation has quickly become a political game, with Republicans calling on Biden to strike Iran.
Constant escalation
We must first understand what is at play for the U.S. in this crisis. As early as October 7, Biden deployed major forces, including two aircraft carriers, to dissuade Iran from taking advantage of the war between Israel and Hamas to push its pawns.
Since then, a controlled but constant escalation has pitted Israel against the pro-Iranian Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; while other pro-Iranian forces, the Yemeni Houthis in the Red Sea, and Shiite militias, have sprung into action.
Thus the Americans have suffered some 160 attacks in the last three months, in Iraq, in Syria, in the Red Sea and now in Jordan. They have retaliated on numerous occasions, mainly in Yemen and Iraq, without managing to calm things down.
What does Teheran want?
The question is what to do after this deadly attack, without starting a war with Iran, that Joe Biden wants to avoid at all costs.
The real question is: what does Teheran want ? While Iran is not seeking a direct confrontation with the U.S. either, it still wants to impose its influence upon what it calls the “the axis of resistance” – those armed groups from Yemen to the Gaza strip, via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
The last thing Joe Biden wants in an election year is a ruinous and deadly war
For Teheran, it’s a delicate balancing act that consists of turning the heat up against Israel or the U.S., without tipping over into regional conflagration.
The American response is equally delicate, since the last thing Joe Biden wants in an election year is a ruinous and deadly war, after those of the past decades in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The U.S. President will therefore try to re-establish deterrence by striking Iran’s “proxies” harder and harder, but without going to war with their Iranian godfather.
But the longer this regional crisis lasts, the harder it will be not to cross the Rubicon — even accidentally. It’s the very dangerous game that is afoot in this region, in parallel with and directly in link with the tragic war in Gaza.
