-Analysis-
PARIS — Volodymyr Zelensky took to the stage Sunday to tell his compatriots that the West had not abandoned Ukraine. The Ukrainian president had to wait until the end of a long political suspense in Washington on Saturday before he could send this hopeful message to his war-torn country. The vote, which saw a large majority in the House of Representatives support the $61 billion aid package, had been seen by Ukrainians as a matter of life or death.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
In the final days before the vote, U.S. intelligence services made it known that — without this aid — the Ukrainian army was condemned to be defeated by Russia, which is simply superior in ammunition and population.
Even if we avoid the dramatic tone caused by the political climate in Washington, the same opinion came from Ukrainian units on the front, demoralized by their inability to respond, for lack of shells, to Russian artillery barrages.
Ukrainian anguish
Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was initially hostile to this aid package, changed his mind so as not to find himself, in his own words, “on the wrong side of history” — in other words, the side which gives victory to Vladimir Putin.
He did, however, take the precaution of first checking in with the true leader of the Republicans party, Donald Trump, who did not stand in the way.
This dramatic language reflects the anguish that has gripped Ukrainians in recent weeks.
The first loads of U.S. weapons destined for Ukraine are ready to be shipped, as soon as the vote by the House of Representatives has been confirmed by the Senate, which should be a formality, and the bill signed by President Joe Biden. So, in principle, it’s a matter of days.
Yesterday, Zelensky warned that there should be as little time as possible between political decisions and, in his own words, “the actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package’s approval and our warriors’ strengthening”.
This dramatic language reflects the anguish that has gripped Ukrainians in recent weeks, as they realize that they have run out of ammunition to resist the Russian assaults that are nibbling away at their positions on the front line, while at the same time they are unable to protect their infrastructure and population from Russian missiles and drones — definitely not as effectively as the Israelis and their Western allies did in the face of the Iranian attack eight days ago, which reinforced Ukrainians’ feeling of abandonment.
Can Ukraine win?
Will this aid be enough to change the course of the war? It will definitely prevent a potentially dramatic weakening of the Ukrainian army. It now needs to strengthen its defensive capabilities in the face of Russian pressure, and especially in the face of the Russian army’s expected offensive in early summer, which is due to target towns such as Kharkhiv and Odessa.
If Ukraine were to negotiate today, in a position of weakness, it would condemn itself to surrender.
Ukraine must hold out throughout this difficult year, while U.S. and European aid packages should bear fruit at the end of the year and especially next year. It must hold out, and if possible reverse the balance of power, which is currently in Russia’s favor.
Can Ukraine win? Not many people believe so in the current circumstances, but it all depends on what we mean by winning. If Ukraine were to negotiate today, in a position of weakness, it would condemn itself to surrender. It would be a different matter if Russia found itself at an impasse or on the back foot, and it would be in Russia’s interest to negotiate.
This is the Americans’ billion gamble, which comes late, but probably not too late.
