-Analysis-
PARIS — This looks like the start of a standoff that may finally be decisive — on several levels.
The disagreements between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden are now out in the open. And unsurprisingly, they are about the post-war period, and specifically the “two-state” solution.
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These diplomatic tensions are rare between the two allies, especially in times of war. Friday’s call between Biden and Netanyahu was the first one in a month. Following the conversation, reports coming out of Washington indicated that the Israeli prime minister was not opposed to the two-state solution.
The next day, in the middle of Shabbat, the Jewish sabbath, when all political activity is usually on pause, the Israeli prime minister issued a denial of those reports: no, he does not agree at all to a two-state solution.
Netanyahu went even further by declaring that Israel’s intentions are to keep security control over “all territory west of the Jordan River,” that is to say over an area which covers both the State of Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories. A second sovereign state is therefore out of the question.
The challenge here is twofold: first, it is the start of major maneuvers to initiate a political solution as soon as the military phase is permanently over. Now is the time to launch trial balloons, like this Arab nations’ plan which proposes the recognition of the Jewish state by Saudi Arabia, in exchange for Israel’s “irreversible” commitment to a Palestinian state.
Broken trust
It is also a political fight. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is gambling on his political survival, because of the upcoming investigation into the military failures on October 7 and his ongoing trials for corruption.
The dissonance within the Israeli cabinet is not a secret: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is positioning himself to be the successor of Netanyahu; while Benny Gantz, the centrist opponent who joined the war cabinet, does not hide his disagreements.
Netanyahu appears to be playing for time while hoping for a victory of Donald Trump in November.
Another member of the war cabinet, former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, called for early elections last week, saying trust in the current government is no longer there.
An anti-Biden, pro-Palestinian protest in Atlanta
What comes next?
In this context, the conflict with Biden takes on its full meaning. The American president is widely criticized in the United States, among his own electorate, for his unbending support for Israel, both on the military and political fronts. As the elections are approaching, he must be able to show that although he supported Israel’s right to defend itself, he wants a fair solution for the Palestinians.
Netanyahu now clearly stands as an obstacle in Biden’s path, and appears to be playing for time while hoping for a victory of Donald Trump in November. The rebuff from the Israeli prime minister this weekend is nevertheless humiliating for the American president, and it will bear consequences.
Europeans, who are largely absent from these debates, are also trying to weigh in: a text studied today by the foreign ministers from the 27 EU member countries proposes to raise the threat of isolation, or even sanctions, if Israel refuses a Palestinian state.
Europe does not have the weight of the Americans, but this is indicative of the climate in which Netanyahu’s latest denial is seen as so unacceptable for the international community. While the toll continues to rise in Gaza, another war is being waged behind the scenes: the war of the “day after.”
