Another Ceasefire Rejected? Why Gaza War Is Good For Netanyahu — And Hamas

–Analysis–

PARIS — How does one halt a war that has been going on for nearly seven months, with ripples felt across much of the world? Once again, rumors of an imminent ceasefire are circulating in the Middle East, where the quiet dance of negotiators serves as a diplomatic barometer.

At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Tuesday his intention to go through with the Israeli offensive on the Gaza city of Rafah, home to more than one million people, “with or without a deal” to free hostages. This statement by the Israeli leader is two-pronged: It can be seen as a proof of his inflexible stance, meant to better prepare for an imminent agreement — or it could seek to escalate the situation.

Last week, Qatar’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, one of the behind-the-scenes negotiators between Israel and Hamas, commented that every time a deal seemed within reach, both parties duly proceeded to sabotage it.

Indeed, both the Israeli government and Hamas leaders seem to have an interest in prolonging hostilities.

Netanyahu’s political survival

From Netanyahu’s point of view, the stakes are clear: The prime minister is desperately looking for the military success that has so far eluded him. Hamas’ leaders remain elusive, hence the prime minister’s determination to launch an assault on Rafah, despite the inevitable high human cost.

Hamas also benefits from prolonging this ordeal.

Without this success, Netanyahu knows he will be held accountable for the security failures on October 7. The head of Israel’s military intelligence has announced his resignation, but no politician has followed suit.

Netanyahu also faces pressure from his far-right allies, such as Minister of Security Itamar Ben Gvir, who on Thursday called for maintaining plans to move into Rafah to “eliminate Amalek” — a biblical reference to the archetypal enemy of the Jews.

Hamas also benefits from prolonging this ordeal, strengthening its position as Israel’s main adversary. Finding new political footing once the war is over and hostages are releases could prove very complicated for those responsible for the October 7 massacre.

Torn region, torn world

Meanwhile, the Americans and regional countries are doing what they can to broker a ceasefire, as they all have an interest in ending hostilities.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is particularly active, given the current political climate in the United States regarding the war in Gaza and how it increasingly weighs on Joe Biden’s reelection campaign.

Once again, the region is torn between war and, if not peace, at least “non-war.”

Arab countries also want to see this crisis quiet down, as it puts the region’s leaders at odds with their populations, the latter being much more sensitive to the plight of the Palestinians.

The conflict also puts a significant damper on regional development prospects — in particular in Saudi Arabia, which still hopes for regional unity and the normalization of relations with Israel, as Blinken confirmed Tuesday. But Riyadh cannot take this step as long as the war goes on.

Once again, the region is torn between war and, if not peace, at least “non-war.” And the decision rests in the hands of a few: members of the Israeli war cabinet, political rivals facing a decisive choice, and Hamas leaders whose whereabouts and condition remain unknown, but who are yet to be broken after seven months of war.

The people, meanwhile, continue to suffer.