-OpEd-
CAIRO — Since Israel’s April 1 attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the United States has been in constant contact with Iran, both through intermediaries and directly, to avoid an expanded war in the region. That has been Washington’s goal since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza in response to the group’s Oct. 7 attack.
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Before Iran’s April 13 counter attack, the U.S. and Western media reported on Washington’s attempts to persuade Tehran not to respond directly to Israel’s attack. But the Iranian regime, whose supporters have been chanting “Death to America. Death to Israel,” apparently decided that not responding directly to the Israeli attack would cause great embarrassment at home and shake its prestige in the region and among its allies in the axis of resistance.
Washington and Tehran agreed on a somewhat theatrical response.
Not a farce
On Saturday evening, news circulated that Iran’s counter attack was beginning. The announcement that Iran had launched drones and missiles — which would take several hours to reach Israel, a country with an advanced air defense network — led many commentators to call the move a farce that had been agreed upon in advance between the U.S. and Iran.
Yet this was not theatrics. Israel paid a heavy price for this attack, which broke one of the axioms that the state had always imposed: deterrence of enemy attacks.
Under their confirmed undeclared deal, Washington and Iran agreed not to allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exploit Iran’s counter attack for political gains or expand the war. The clearest evidence of that is Washington’s confirmation that it would not participate in any military retaliatory operation by Israel against Iran.
Although U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Israel on its successful response to the Iranian attack, he also stressed the “diplomatic” nature of the response that he will discuss with G7 leaders.
Netanyahu’s war crimes
By helping to thwart Iran’s counter attack and prevent significant damage in Israel, the U.S. and Western allies, along with Jordan, have deprived Netanyahu of a pretext to expand the war.
Israel’s response is not likely to come soon.
Israeli officials were quick to state that the confrontation with Iran “is not over yet,” and that they will respond to the Iranian attack “in a way and at a time that suits [them].” Such statements have often come from Arab officials, led by the Syrian regime, but it is notable that the statement came from Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz.
Israel’s response is not likely to come soon. Netanyahu knows that he cannot continue underestimating the wishes of his American patron. He is unable to wage a war against Iran alone; he is in constant need of advanced U.S. and Western weapons.
Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to escape his war crimes: killing Iranian generals in Damascus and the three sons and four grandchildren of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on April 11. But so far, it seems his attempt to escape those war crimes has failed.
