-Analysis-
MEXICO CITY — U.S. President Joe Biden might be seen as a political oddity. Despite his advanced age and history of verbal gaffes, he has shown a considerable aptitude for legislation and managed to forward his agenda far better than might have been expected amid enormous political polarization. Biden has made palpable changes both to U.S. economic and foreign policies, though it remains to be seen how beneficial those will be. In any case, the changes affect Mexico, as the U.S.’s neighbor and chief trading partner.
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Biden curiously shares traits with a Republican president of the 1980s, the late Ronald Reagan. He was a good actor and a talented, often witty public speaker, without any claims to being an intellectual. In that Reagan contrasted with the twice-presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson or former President Barack Obama, both Democrats.
Biden, too, has no intellectual pretensions and, like Reagan, sticks to certain clear principles — opposed to Reagan’s liberalizing vision, of course — that guide his decision-taking. First, Biden has broken with the longstanding U.S. principle as a promoter and engine of world economic growth, and replaced it with an introspective industrial policy that also favors unionized workers.
Modern protectionism
His economic strategy, termed Bidenomics, might be considered a modern version of the old protectionism, involving hefty subsidies. It seeks to establish — or reestablish — high-tech industries, especially those making semiconductors, inside the country, and to use of cleaner energies in an effort to beat the chief competitor, China. It is an economic version of former President Donald Trump’s confrontational approach with communist China, tightened with subsidies. Today, the U.S. government — or better said, the taxpayer — is paying big firms to stop making high-tech goods in cheaper places such as China or Taiwan.
Biden’s Democratic party lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, yet the president has managed to work with this lower house, barely controlled by a divided Republican party, to prevent the government grinding to a halt over budgeting.
Voters however are reportedly unhappy with Biden, not only over persistent inflation but also his age. Many are saying he should make way for a younger Democratic candidate in November’s presidential election. At more than 80 years old, Biden would end a second term at 86 years old, if he won. Trump is only three years younger, though their speech performances are markedly different. Biden’s electoral cursus is remarkable really, given his limited eloquence. In the 1980s, he was disqualified in one race after he was caught plagiarizing a speech. Half the world was surprised when he defeated Trump in 2020.
Mexico’s choices
The U.S. is Mexico’s premier export market and thus, a crucial engine of our country’s economic growth. Mexico’s future depends on our ability to forge ever-closer ties with our neighbor and distribute the benefits across the country. Yet Biden’s policies may obstruct this trading logic, as he moves to protect formal U.S. workers threaten to exclude a range of Mexican products, especially relating to vehicles, from the current free-trade treaty.
Mexico can make the best of its ties with its neighbor, or delude itself about the future.
Perhaps a bigger challenge may be the goals of our own president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which may be described as hostile to Mexico’s broader economic interests and developmental goals. In contrast with his U.S. counterpart, López Obrador, hasn’t even tried to act like a president for all Mexicans. Instead, he has revelled, like an endless campaign politician, in divisions between his supporters and opponents.
As a mid-level power bordering a superpower, Mexico has the choice to make the best of its ties with its neighbor, whoever is in power across the border. Or, it can delude itself about the future, and decide to join the political and economic losers in South America. As in other moments in our history, it’s a real dilemma. The question is: can the Mexico’s next president grasp the stakes?
