-Analysis-
PARIS — Last week, Europe passed its financial aid plan for Ukraine despite the obstruction of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Today, it’s the United States’ turn to vote on a $118 billion joint package for Ukraine, Israel, and the fight against immigration — and it’s not looking good.
It’s a considerable test of Joe Biden’s political credibility; one that his likely rival in the November presidential race, Donald Trump, has no intention of letting him pass. And too bad for the Ukrainians if there’s no more U.S. funding this year.
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To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to block legislation that was partly drafted by other Republicans. But Trump has personally intervened to mobilize Senators sympathetic to him against funding Ukraine, even if it kills the anti-immigration funding he holds dear in the process.
The likely Republican nominee is no stranger to contradictions, as long as they serve his interests.
Biden’s limits
This is a very bad signal for Ukraine, whose army is already suffering from a shortage of ammunition in the face of a Russia that seems to have no shortage of it.
On Sunday, Joe Biden made a final appeal to elected Republicans to put partisan considerations aside and reiterated the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine. But he is unlikely to be heard: enough Republican senators have indicated that they will vote against the plan.
Biden is urging Europe to keep its commitments to Ukraine.
The U.S. president will probably continue to help Ukraine within the limits of his powers, through procedures that do not require the approval of Congress. He is also urging allied countries such as Japan and South Korea to get more involved, and Europe to stick to its commitment, notably in the production of shells.
He will do his utmost to get Ukraine through this difficult year, in the run-up to the Nov. 5 election, which will be absolutely decisive.
U.S. skepticism
Ukraine will be a major electoral issue. The blame game began yesterday, and Donald Trump is confident enough to say he will take responsibility for this legislative failure.
As U.S. specialist Maya Kandel points out on the Médiapart website, the isolationist sentiment carried by Trump is “in the majority on the right”, and “is now gaining ground in all sectors of U.S. opinion”. “In his campaign rallies, Trump repeats his opposition to military intervention, his skepticism about traditional U.S. alliances,” such as NATO, and shows himself willing to strike deals with authoritarian leaders, such as Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong-un.
In a sign of this assertive choice, far-right journalist Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News star, is currently in Moscow interviewing Putin, accusing the mainstream media of “lying” about Ukraine. If Ukraine’s funding is rejected today, he’ll even be able to toast with the Russian president: it’ll be the best news he’s had in a long time.
