-Analysis-
PARIS — It’s a race against time between the logic of a war and the possibility of a truce — between a potentially disastrous escalation and the release of hostages and desperately needed aid to civilians in distress.
Monday was an emotional rollercoaster for all those following events in the Middle East. Early in the day, Israel revealed the first signs of its dreaded offensive on the overcrowded Gaza city of Rafah — an evacuation order for some of the one million civilians gathered in the south, and a new round of bombardments described as intense.
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Then on Monday evening, Hamas announced that it was accepting the terms of a ceasefire that had been painstakingly negotiated over the last few days. This raised hopes of an end to the fighting, but Israel is still studying the proposal it says do not fulfill the terms that had been agreed to earlier.
Under these conditions, can Israel afford to launch its full-fledged offensive on Rafah, which the whole world has warned against? The voices of the U.S., French and UN Secretary General were joined by those of the Arab countries that until a few days ago were defending Israel against Iran: Jordan and Saudi Arabia. So far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to listen.
The logic of war
The comment in the Israeli opposition daily “Haaretz” says it all: “Netanyahu hoped that Hamas would refuse the ceasefire, and when that didn’t happen, he set about sabotaging it.”
Whether or not this interpretation is correct, the fact is undeniable that the Prime Minister has ignored calls from all over the world to abandon the offensive.
Hamas’ main leaders have eluded Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s supporters argue that he must see his war logic through to the end and eradicate Hamas from its last refuge in Gaza. So far, he has not achieved the victory he had hoped for: Hamas’s main leaders have eluded him despite the destruction of Gaza’s towns and infrastructure, and the tens of thousands of Palestinian civilian victims.
But, starting with U.S. President Joe Biden, there are many who question Israel’s strategy and its cost to human life. Since the start, Israel asked the residents of the north and center of the Gaza Strip to move further south during the ground offensive.
As a result, the population of Rafah has increased six-fold, and it is these displaced people in an extremely fragile situation who Israel is now ready to send back to a hypothetical humanitarian zone.
Impotence or hypocrisy?
Netanyahu doesn’t listen to anyone. It’s a huge paradox when you consider the political cost Biden is paying in this election year for his support for Israel.
Impotence or hypocrisy? The fact remains that for several months now, Washington has been expressing its disagreements while continuing to deliver weapons to Israel, and even military intervention during the Iranian attack.
The same frustration is felt in Paris, where the Minister of Foreign Affairs said yesterday, in an unusual move, that the forced displacement of a civilian population “constitutes a war crime under international law.”
Netanyahu also has to face up, in Israel itself, to a section of public opinion that accuses him of sacrificing the hostages still in the hands of Hamas.
The escalation that is starting to unfold in Rafah looks like a rush into the abyss. Netanyahu must now decide whether he will continue with his logic of war, or whether he will reluctantly accept the ceasefire that is within reach.
