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Geopolitics

Iran And Israel Are Destined To Be Rivals — Even If The Islamic Regime Falls

One-quarter of the way into the 21st century, Israel is emerging not only as a staunch ally of the United States but also as the dominant regional power. That inevitably places it in direct competition with Iran, both in its current theocratic form and in a potential free and democratic future.

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In The News

Israel-Iran War: Four Points To Help Understand What Happens Next

After a week of unprecedented conflict between sworn enemy states, Israel and Iran may actually be holding back in the coming days, as the White House mulls its options. But surprises are no doubt in store with so much at stake.

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Eyes on the U.S.

After Biden Appeasement, Iran Braces For Trump’s Wrath — Or Deal

The incoming Trump administration will likely abandon its predecessor’s efforts to persuade the Iranian regime to change its disruptive and violent policies. Yet for ultimate survival, Tehran may be counting on an unexpected factor: Trump’s erratic mindset.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Don’t Be Fooled, Syrians Will Wind Up Worse Off Post-Assad

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, there are many questions about the future of Syria. Yet the regional and international powers who planned his collapse did not consider the Syrian people or their future in their calculations. Syrians may be out of Assad’s frying pan, but they’ve been thrown into a fire of armed fundamentalist groups.

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Geopolitics

Iran-Lebanon: When Larijani Laughed Amid The Rubble Of Beirut

A photographer captured the seasoned Iranian official Ali Larijani laughing on his visit Thursday to Beirut, fully aware of what laughter means in such a situation. The seasoned Iranian diplomat knows that many Lebanese hold his regime responsible for dragging their country into a bloody, senseless, and destructive war.

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Geopolitics

Why Iran Is So Nervous: The West Is Set To “Reorder” The Middle East For Trade Routes

Israel and the West are seeking a stabilized Middle East to shorten the trading corridor with India and Asia. It’s a win-win situation for prosperous economies and the West, but what about Tehran’s truculent regime?

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Geopolitics

How Iran’s Obsession With Destroying Israel Has Undermined Its Own Hold On Power

Iran’s 40-year policy of seeking the destruction of the Jewish state and “taking back” Jerusalem became the north star of the Tehran’s foreign policy. Now it may be its undoing.

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Geopolitics Ideas Israel-Palestine War

After Sinwar? A Palestinian Critique Of The Militarization Of Resistance

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack is just the latest Israeli strike against those who have tried to monopolize the notion of “resistance” as a purely military pursuit. The result has been the absolute destruction of Gaza, and now Lebanon, and the reinforcement of the Israeli occupation.

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This Happened

This Happened — October 10: Iran Lets Women Attend Soccer Game

Updated Oct. 10, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. Some 3,500 women were the first since the Islamic Revolution to be allowed to attend a football match in Iran for a World Cup qualifier in Tehran on this day in 2019. What was the first sporting match attended by women in post-Revolution Iran? In October 2019, Iran […]

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

How Israeli Counter Strikes Could Trigger The Demise Of Iran’s Regime

Was it the “Mother of Miscalculations?” Tehran’s decision to launch a second missile attack on Israel demonstrates its weakness at home and abroad. The Iranian regime may soon face the consequences, as a possible series of events could be triggered by a reprisal from the better-equipped Israeli military.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Yes, Nasrallah Hit Makes The U.S. And Iran Look Weak — But This Won’t End Well For Israel

As Israel celebrates the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Washington and Tehran both suddenly seem powerless, looking like spectators of an unraveling tragedy that is beyond their control. Yet, given its demographics and geography, Israel desperately needs allies.

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Geopolitics

Iran Is Weak Right Now — The West Should Exploit That Weakness

With an economy in ruins and facing an unstable foreign environment, the Islamic Republic of Iran has signaled, with the return of seasoned diplomats to top positions, that it wants to talk again. But, as always, those who call the shots in Tehran are loath to negotiate anything crucial with the West.

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Geopolitics

Iran: Why Zarif’s Surprise Return Is Such Bad News For Hardliners

Mohammad Javad Zarif is among the most recognizable faces of contemporary Iranian political life. His return to government in a strategic position does not guarantee his project’s survival. Indeed, radical Islamic forces will likely make him a prime target for destruction.

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Geopolitics Ideas Israel-Palestine War

How Iran And Hezbollah Are Quietly Doing Everything To Avoid Escalation With Israel

For two decades Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah spoke about destroying Israel, but in recent speeches, he’s just demanding it pull out of Gaza. It’s one more sign that its patrons in Tehran have made a calculation to try to salvage a status quo in the region.

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Society

After Hijabs, Iran’s Morality Police Have A New Target: Men In Shorts

Iranian authorities have been fining young men for wearing shorts. But while this may be an effort to show they are unbiased in their drive to safeguard public decency, reports suggest the men are treated less harshly than women.

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Geopolitics

Iran Elections: Lessons In How To Disguise A Voter Boycott

Iran’s regime has selected six candidates for the presidential elections due in late June, and possibly even a winner, just as millions of Iranians may have made their own choice, to no longer vote in a dictatorship.

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Geopolitics

Iranians React To Raisi Death: Mourning, Cheering, Succession Whispers, Israel’s Role

With the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi, some dare hope for a boost in anti Iranian regime movements. Others mourn the death of a martyr or blame Israel. But his succession is for all a high-stake issue.

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Geopolitics

An Iranian Rapper’s Death Sentence And The “Selective Solidarity” Of Our Times

Injustice and inhumanity comes in many forms and places in the Middle East, including the Iranian regime’s death sentence for the rapper Toomaj. Why can’t those protesting the deaths of civilians in Gaza take a moment to try to save this innocent life as well?

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Iran-Israel: Why It’s Not Over Yet

Israel’s recent strike on central Iran was a warning shot for Tehran, tempered by a desire to close the recent spate of tit-for-tat attacks and by pressure from the U.S. Yet this may have only ended round one of the Iran-Israeli showdown.

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Geopolitics

Hossein Mousavian, The Princeton Professor Quietly Working For Iran’s Regime

U.S. Congressmen and Iranian opponents want to know why Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a veteran official of the Tehran regime is working at Princeton University, when he is suspected of involvement with terrorist activities.

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Geopolitics

Shia Cleric Or Revolutionary Guards? How Khamenei Succession Will Play Out Inside Iran

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 84, has been in power since 1989. What will happen when he dies? His death may lead to a hybrid military-Islamic regime, with members of the Revolutionary Guards imposing a more pragmatic yet equally corrupt regime. It is time for the opposition to find a unified leader they can rally behind and that can help mobilize Iranians in the transition.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Forty-Five Years On, Why The West Continues To Tolerate Iran’s Criminal Regime

Western diplomacy shows the West will tolerate the Iranian regime’s repression at home and violent intrigues in the Middle East and beyond, but it might clarify to the public why liberal democracies should want to keep the mullahs in power in Tehran.

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Geopolitics Ideas

For Iran’s Regime, Meddling In The Red Sea May Prove To Be A Fatal Mistake

Iran’s revolutionary regime is believed to have aided Russia against Ukraine and goaded Hamas into attacking Israel. Could its insidious backing for Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping finally end the West’s appeasement of a hooligan state.

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Geopolitics

Escalation Of The Middle East War? It’s Already Begun

Though all-out war has not yet spread, there are a multiplying number of attacks, targeted and otherwise, taking place across borders that has all the makings of a region-wide conflagration.

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Geopolitics

Why Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah Could Become Iran’s Next Supreme Leader

Iran’s constitution effectively allows any Shia theologian to become Supreme Leader, and the maneuvering to succeed Ali Khamenei now appears to include Hassan Nasrallah, longtime influential leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. It could redraw the map of the Middle East, but would ordinary Iranians and politicians stomach such an audacious imposition?

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Geopolitics

Iran-Russia Deal Cranks Up Surveillance — But Also Puts Tehran’s Own Secrets At Risk

Iran’s plans to boost security and intelligence collaborations with Russia are fueling fears among Iranians that Russia will soon act as power broker, decision-maker and secret policeman inside their country.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

The Iran Paradox: Regional Bully, Weak At Home

The recent repression of an old man dancing at a fish market shows how on edge Iran’s regime is domestically, writes Pierre Haski. While Iran may be stepping up its game regionally, its fragile attitude domestically can be a sign of what an irrational actor the mullah regime can be.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

With The World Diverted By Gaza, Iran Quietly Executes Its Domestic Opponents

Middle East attention is focused on the war in Gaza, which has given the Iranian regime a great opportunity to lock down control on the situation at home and try to break the protest movement of the past year with extreme violence.

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Israel-Palestine War

How Biden’s Mideast Stance Weakens Israel And Emboldens Iran

The West’s decision to pressure Israel over Gaza, and indulge Iran’s violent and troublesome regime, follows the U.S. Democrats’ line with the Middle East: just keep us out of your murderous affairs.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Here’s Why Iran Might End Up Turning Its Back On Hamas

Iran’s revolutionary regime insists it wants Israel destroyed and has threatened a regional war, but its actions are ambivalent, suggesting it may fear a regional war that would hasten its demise. As a result, it may decide to stop supporting Hamas in Gaza.

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Society

Iran Bans Women From Going To Male Doctors — Gender Laws, Beyond The Hijab

Recovering from the shock of Iran’s 2022 mass protests, the clerical regime has vigorously resumed its campaign to enforce Islamic hijab rules. But it is also pushing for gender segregation in other important ways across society

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

How Khomeini Planted The Seeds For Hamas’ Holy War 45 Years Ago

Whom should we blame for the death and destruction in Gaza: terrorists, Israel or ‘warmongers’ beyond them, notably the Tehran regime that envisaged, decades ago, a regional war as the prelude to spreading its “Islamic revolution.”

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Geopolitics

Russia And Iran: At Least One Is Ready For Middle East Escalation

What happens next in the Middle East, including a possible expansion of the war at the Israeli-Lebanon border, will be determined by choices that are made in different capitals. Keep your eye on Tehran.

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In The News

Worldcrunch Magazine #49 — Eye On Iran, One Year Later

September 11 – September 17, 2023

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Geopolitics

Will Iran Reignite With The Anniversary Of Mahsa Amini’s Death?

Iran’s regime has tightened its grip on the population ahead of the September 16 one-year anniversary of the death that set off the country’s biggest revolt of recent years.

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In The News

Why Iran Is Relying Ever More On Russia And China

Iran can expect few real economic benefits from joining the China-dominated SCO, but its leaders hope China and Russia will help the regime tighten its grip at home.

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Geopolitics

Iran, The Day After: Here’s What Could Happen If The Ayatollahs Fall

Finding themselves amid a range of strategic, economic and regional interests, Iranians in a post-regime future will have to deftly maneuver their country toward a peaceful, constitutional state. Bahram Farrokhi writes about the good, the bad and the worst-case scenarios.

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In The News

Iranian Regime Facing “Unprecedented” Street Attacks Against Clerics

A spate of recent attacks in Iran on clerics, seminarians and even state agents are prompting some to self-defense classes, while others are holing up inside.

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In The News

How Europe Can Help Iranian Protesters, Right Now — Blacklist The Revolutionary Guards

The European Union has been hesitant to classify Iran’s national security force as a terrorist organization because of fears of a reprisal.

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In The News

Dismissal Of Iran Spy Chief Shows A Regime In Disarray

The recent departure of a top Iranian military intelligence chief, supposedly over security lapses and bad decisions, reveals regime weakness in an area key to its survival: espionage and state intelligence.

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