Updated Jan. 20, 2024 at 3:40 p.m.
-Analysis-
The attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen are harming global commerce, to the tune of over $1 million an hour. A million dollars an hour: that is not something world powers can simply overlook.
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The Islamic Republic of Iran believes it can utilize the Houthis by remote control, the way it has used hostage-taking, notably in Beirut in the 1980s, to win concessions from the United States.
That must be why it continues to claim the Houthis are acting alone. Yet the Iranian regime may not realize that its actions — through the Houthis or any other ‘independent’ proxy — are swiftly turning the world’s attention against Tehran. The U.S. responded again Friday with its fifth round of strikes against Houthi strongholds.
A swing in world sympathies in favor of the United States and Israel will only strengthen their hands for more vigorous action against the ayatollahs and their minions.
U.S. strikes Houthis for fifth time
Who believes Iran?
The Hamas attack on Israel in early October, and the subsequent caution shown by the Tehran regime and its allies Hezbollah, have effectively revealed Tehran’s hand and shown how little it wants a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States, in spite of its boisterous threats.
The Hamas attack unravelled Tehran’s threadbare lies and posturing.
On the other hand, Israel was always concerned a direct attack on Hamas or Hezbollah would simultaneously mobilize Iran’s militias, or activate the Axis of Resistance against it, leading to war on many fronts and potentially, heavy Israeli casualties.
But the Hamas attack unravelled Tehran’s threadbare lies and posturing, while taking Israel and the Arab states toward an unstated consensus on the need to destroy Tehran’s regional militias. Iranian officials insist they had nothing to do with the Houthi attacks (like they had nothing to do with Hamas’s attack), yet who in the world believes them?
The Red Sea attacks may not affect the United States’ own trade much, but its passive attitude is being misinterpreted as a sign of weakness and signal to Tehran and its friends that they can act as they please.
Russia’s puppet
I suspect the October attack on Israel and now, the Houthis’ ballistic piracy were conceived in Russia, and put into action by its puppet down the hierarchy chain: the Iranian regime. Throughout the war in Ukraine, Western states have focused on Ukraine and Russia, but they may now have to focus on a third section of a hostile front, namely the Tehran regime as chief enabler and implementor of chaos in the Middle East.
In economic terms, with the termination of Russian gas exports to Europe, this should have come from the Middle East, which requires peace and security. That means Europe needs governments there with shared interests and a willingness to work with the West.
The West is finding it has more and more reasons for taking a stand against Iran — and it now looks like sooner rather than later, we may come to that.
