-OpEd-
CAIRO — As Syrians were celebrating the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), went to the historic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus to deliver his victory speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejoiced in what he called an “historic day,” saying it would provide his country with “new opportunities” in the Middle East.
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Standing on the occupied Golan Heights and watching the developments in Syria with his defense minister and chief of staff, Netanyahu said that he ordered IDF forces to occupy the buffer zone and the nearby control sites, established by a 1974 disengagement agreement between the two countries.
Netanyahu — who boasted that the IDF had taken control of the 235-square-kilometer demilitarized buffer zone “without any significant resistance, and without firing a single bullet” — ordered forces on the same day to bomb a number of strategic sites deep inside Syria, including military airbases, weapon factories and laboratories, ballistic missile warehouses, and headquarters of security and military agencies.
Netanyahu justified these strikes by saying he is concerned that these weapons could be seized by armed militias and terrorists. Yet Israeli media report on HTS in a different way.
Israeli reports said that the rebel group, which is led by “an open-minded man whose positions have changed and who now supports moderate Islam,” promised to establish peace with Israel, according to Asharq Al-Awsat, a London-based Saudi-owned Arabic international newspaper.
Experts spoke on Israeli television stations about the close relations between Israel and the armed groups that have controlled Syria since 2013, and reported that Turkey pledged that HTS would not raise its arms against Israel.
When the Syrian opposition fighters approached the border fence, IDF soldiers only fired warning shots at them and asked them to go back, so they returned to complete their “jihad” against the remnants of the Syrian army, leaving the Israeli army to its accomplish its mission of occupying Syrian cities and lands near the strategic Mount Hermon.
A blow to Iran
On the evening of this hot day, when the Syrian streets were empty — except for Turkmen, Dagestani, Tatar and Azeri elements of the opposition fighters who began implementing the HTS curfew — the intoxication of victory had passed. The question was now over what is to come.
There are many questions about the future of Syria, its people and its neighbors under the control of groups that were supported, trained, armed and financed by regional and international parties; each has its own goals that these armed factions will seek to achieve in order to pay off their debts.
The regional and international powers that crafted this final scene did not consider the Syrian people or their future in their calculations. Their only concern was to settle their conflicts, conclude their deals and divide their maps of influence, using the Syrian arena.
We could see the entire axis of resistance just unravel.
In the latest episode of this regional and international conflict taking place on Syrian soil, the Iranian axis, of which Assad’s regime was a “central link,” according to Netanyahu, received a major blow.
“This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime,” Netanyahu said. “This has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to be free from this oppressive and tyrannical regime.”
That statement was confirmed by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham who said in a post on X that “With the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the game changes dramatically. It’s a big loss for Russia and Iran, which is good.”
In other words, as one Western diplomat told the The Washington Post, “without Syria, we could see the entire axis of resistance just unravel.”
An international plan
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime, which ruled Syria with an iron fist for over 50 years, was not the result of the revolt of the Syrian people who took to the streets 13 years ago to demand the establishment of a democratic civil state.
Nor was it the result of the tactics of opposition groups, some of which decided to take up arms to protect themselves from the regime’s oppression. Nor was it the result of the Salafist jihadist groups that exploited the vacuum and chaos and expanded into northern Syria.
Rather, it went beyond all that. Israel’s failure to achieve its goals on the battlefields, whether in Gaza or southern Lebanon after more than a year, prompted its sponsors (allies) to articulate a plan that would give it what it wanted without exposing it again to the test of war.
What was leaked in the American and Israeli media revealed an early American-Turkish agreement to support the armed opposition groups that were able to invade areas in northern Syria in less than two weeks, following the collapse of the Syrian army, which was left alone without Russian and Iranian support.
The Syrian army withdrew and left its weapons and equipment behind, paving the way for those groups to reach Damascus “without any significant problems,” as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hoped in comments on Friday ahead of Assad’s fall.
Winners, losers and spectators
The American-Israeli-Turkish axis achieved a strategic victory over its opponents in the Middle East. It isolated Hezbollah and cut off its supply route by toppling the Syrian regime, which turned Syria into safe corridors between Tehran and southern Lebanon.
Iran also received a devastating blow. It lost one agent, the Assad regime, while another, Hezbollah, was weakened. As for Russia, it lost much of its influence in the Middle East after the fall of its closest ally, which allowed it to establish military bases on its territory and granted it a port on the Mediterranean.
The list of losers also includes the Palestinian resistance factions, as all the events have shaken their negotiating position, putting the sacrifices and steadfastness of the Palestinian people at risk.
Assad has been replaced by a plague of armed fundamentalist groups.
As for the Arab system with all its components, it is outside the calculations of profit and loss. Arab rulers chose to sit in the rows of spectators and watch the game which international and regional competitors are playing in Arab stadiums. They watched in silence. They didn’t even issue any signs that could be understood that they are going to join the field to reclaim their occupied territories, their plundered wealth, and their stolen dignity.
Bashar Assad’s regime was like the cholera outbreak that struck Syria in 2022, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions, and dividing the country into areas of influence and protectorates for conflicting regional and international powers. Now that his regime has ended, some of these powers are working to maximize their gains, while the others are attempting to minimize their losses.
Assad has been replaced by a plague of armed fundamentalist groups supported by the enemies of the Syrians and Arabs, and prepared to implement the directives of their supporters at the expense of Syria. Israel, the key winner, has already seized Syrian territories.
Wasted opportunities
Syria was a state subordinate to Russia and Iran, and had a seat in the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. Now it is a state controlled by extremist religious groups ready to appease Israel and the United States — and even fight with them against the common enemy. As one of the commanders of Syrian rebel forces, known as Abu Abdo, told Israeli 24-hour news television channel i24NEWS, ‘We are fighting against a common enemy. The enemy is the criminal Iranian regime and all its branches”.
He said the groups are “activists for peace. We are not murderous, warlike and destructive activists.” And that “We look at Israel and the U.S…. and we have a lot of respect and sympathy for them, for their actions against Iran – the country that leads terrorism in the region and all over the world.” He said that his faction “looks forward to cooperate and eliminate this enemy and restoring stability.”
Assad wasted every possible opportunity to save Syria.
The Assad regime collapsed and fell not only because it was exposed to a major conspiracy but also because it lost the legitimacy of its survival, after it broke its people’s dream of freedom and dignity. Syrians no longer believed in the regime and were ready to get rid of it even if the alternative is ISIS or al-Qaeda.
The Syrian army collapsed and withdrew from most of its positions without fighting because it lost its military doctrine; its only duty was to defend Assad against Syrians and with the support of regional forces and sectarian militias.
Societies gain immunity against collapse and disintegration by spreading justice and the principles of freedom and democracy. Armies fight their battles with a combat doctrine that drives them either to victory or death for the sake of values, principles and major causes.
Assad wasted every possible opportunity to save Syria from the plot against him and the Arab nation. He was toppled as a result of these wasted opportunities.
