-Analysis-
PARIS — It is a strange paradox. Iran is the godfather of the most dreaded forces at the moment in the Middle East: Hamas in Gaza, Yemeni Houthis striking panic in the Red Sea’s maritime traffic, and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. But at the same time, the mullah regime is panicking because of the success of a septuagenarian who films himself dancing on social media.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
The story of man, known as Uncle Sadegh, perfectly illustrates how difficult it is to analyze Iran’s complexity. This white-haired taxi driver from the coastal city of Rasht, on the Caspian Sea, is a local attraction and earned his reputation by singing and dancing at the fish market. At the end of November, a video in which he sways his hips repeating “ow ow ow” in chorus went viral in Iran, with 4.5 million views over a few days.
Everywhere else, it would have been a moment of glory — one of those loved by social media. But not in Iran where the video turned in a societal — and thus political — phenomenon. Millions of Iranians, including unveiled women, filmed themselves imitating Uncle Sadegh and singing “ow ow ow”, which the authorities saw as a seditious, anti-Islamic act.
The regime is on edge
The authorities did what they do best: repress. The old man and all those who could be identified on the video were arrested. But a public debate followed, in which some rose to defend what was only a non-reprehensible “expression of happiness” after all, and not a political act. Uncle Sadegh was freed and his Instagram account was unblocked. Everything went back to normal.
Nevertheless, it is clear that the regime is highly strung, for it to be frightened by such an innocuous scene.
The authorities have been on edge since the wave of protests following the death of Mahsa Amini over a too-visible strand of hair last year. It took hundreds of deaths to restore the Islamic order; a seventh of the people sentenced to death in connection with these events were executed recently.
It is the great Iranian paradox: a destabilizing power abroad, yet so fragile at home.
Ambivalence with regional role
What impact does this fragility have on Iran’s role in the region? For every domestic crisis, we ask ourselves about its regional activism. It is clear that Tehran’s role in its sphere of influence is not weakening: we are talking about an arc that goes from Yemen to the Gaza Strip via the Iraqi Shia militias, Syria and of course its main point of support, the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran’s position on the current crisis is ambivalent: it is not openly escalating the situation but lets its allies step up — at the moment, clearly, the Houthis in the Red Sea. It’s as if Teheran was acting in such a way as not to risk a direct confrontation with the United States, which has had a strong presence in the area since Oct. 7, or with Israel.
Will this ambivalence be possible throughout this crisis if it continues its regional escalation? That is where we find Uncle Sadegh and his “ow ow ow”… Can a country that is afraid of a dancing old man go to war with the United States?
This paradox does not argue in favor of confrontation; but we must never forget that Iran does not obey the same rationality as its adversaries.
