-Analysis-
PARIS — The Israeli army is currently recalling tens of thousands of reservists while expanding its operations in Gaza, increasing incursions into Syria, and continuing regular airstrikes on Lebanon despite a ceasefire. On top of that, Israel was hit on Sunday by a missile from Yemen that struck Tel Aviv’s airport, prompting a pledge of retaliation.
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On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet voted to scale up the offensive against Hamas, aiming now to seize and control all of Gaza.
This surge in military activity prompts scrutiny over Israel’s war aims, now 19 months after the Hamas-led massacre in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This war on multiple fronts is the longest Israel has ever been involved in, and it is fueling growing opposition within the Israeli public.
From the outset, Israel’s objectives have been fluid. Especially in Gaza, where a total humanitarian blockade and relentless raids have been ongoing for over two months. Israel appears poised to shift its strategy there, but shows no willingness to consider any political settlement, despite pressure from Arab and European countries.
Hunger as a weapon
The humanitarian blockade has been widely criticized as a violation of international law, and Israel’s restrictions on aid access are now the subject of proceedings before the UN’s International Court of Justice. Israel is currently negotiating with the Trump administration to implement a new aid distribution system that sidelines the UN and NGOs in favor of private security firms overseen by Israel.
This tightly controlled resumption of aid is even more controversial given that it will be accompanied by a broadening of military operations in the already devastated territory. Officially, the goal remains the elimination of Hamas — an objective pursued for 19 months but still unmet.
Israel is capitalizing on a favorable balance of power.
Yet the methods used — especially hunger as a weapon — continue to resemble collective punishment of civilians. There’s an ever-present threat of realizing the plan once outlined by U.S. President Donald Trump: the expulsion of Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians and their replacement with a luxury real estate project. The most extreme voices in Israel’s government support this vision.
Elsewhere, Israel’s operations in Syria are becoming more prominent, including with the deployment of ground troops, officially to protect the Druze minority following deadly clashes. Some Syrian Druze have turned to Israel for help after attacks by radical Sunni groups. Others, however, fear that involving Israel could hasten Syria’s feared collapse.
Regional hegemony
All this raises broader questions about Israel’s strategy. The country is capitalizing on a favorable balance of power — after military victories last year and with the Trump administration’s backing (except on Iran, where Washington still favors negotiations).
This advantage allows Israel to assert itself as the region’s hegemonic power while avoiding any negotiations that might require concessions. Countries like France that continue to promote a two-state solution or political settlement are seen at best as naïve, at worst as hostile.
And this situation will likely continue as long as Israel’s ruling coalition remains that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far right — the real key to change lies there, but remains out of reach for now.
