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PARIS — The American restraint shown on the first day of the Israeli attack no longer applies. On June 13, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said that “Israel took unilateral action against Iran.” Four days later, President Donald Trump tweeted, “We control Iranian airspace” — using a “we” that speaks volumes, even though the United States is officially not participating in the war; or should we say, is not yet officially participating…
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Three factors must be taken into account to understand how and why Trump might decide to go to war alongside Israel. The first is psychological; it may seem trivial when it comes to war, but with Trump, it’s important.
The U.S. president loves being a winner more than anything, being on the victorious side. And in this war, it is Israel that has strategic superiority, that does pretty much what it wants. Hence Trump’s use of “we” — it’s all too tempting. Nothing is more frustrating than a war waged with American weapons, but one in which the president of the United States can’t reap the rewards. This first factor argues in favor of officially entering the war.
Netanyahu’s influence
It is not the only factor. The second is the men who have access to Trump and who try to influence him. The most important person in this matter is obviously Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli prime minister has a long-standing and complex relationship with Trump — more than another man whispering in the president’s ear, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who didn’t want this war. Or more than the Europeans, whom Trump doesn’t even listen to.
Trump’s stance on Israel has destabilized his MAGA base.
Trump can bully Netanyahu — as when his envoy Steve Witkoff imposed a ceasefire on the Israeli leader in Gaza on Jan. 19 so that his inauguration the following day would allow him to achieve a first success — however fleeting.
But today, it is undoubtedly Netanyahu who has the upper hand over Trump; he was able to get Trump to come out of his shell and approve this war even before the negotiations with Iran were completed. It’s an old story: the Israeli prime minister was already against the agreement concluded by then U.S. President Barack Obama in 2015, and has always advocated a military path against an Iranian threat he considers “existential.” If Netanyahu gets the U.S. to go to war on his side, it would be a major first.
Destabilized MAGA base
The third factor is American domestic politics. Trump was elected on a platform of U.S. withdrawal from world conflicts, as opposed to the “endless wars” waged by old-school Republicans and Democrats. In his inaugural address, the president even declared that his success would be measured by the wars he didn’t start — a statement greeted with thunderous applause.
Suffice to say, Trump’s stance on Israel has destabilized his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base, like podcaster Tucker Carlson, who worked tirelessly to get him elected, and who is now being called “kooky” by the president for opposing U.S. entry into the war. While Trump is more MAGA on Ukraine, on Israel and Iran he leans toward the old-school Republicans.
It is this alchemy of several factors that will decide peace or war, and it rests on only one man: Donald Trump.
