-Analysis-
PARIS — On May 1, 1756, a bombshell in Versailles, France: Maria Theresa’s Austria and Louis XV’s France officially put an end to a 250-year rivalry dating back to Charles V and Francis I. France, once an ally of Prussia against the Habsburgs, became Austria’s ally against Prussia’s ambitions.
Jump from 1756 to 2025, and, all things considered, what has been unfolding over the past week is nothing less than a reversal of alliances. We can no longer speak of simple tactical pressure from the United States on Ukraine. This is a strategic shift. We thought that such diplomatic fluctuations, once so typical of the Old Regime Europe, were no longer relevant in the era of global national, ideological, and even civilizational rivalries.
There was, of course, the German-Soviet pact in 1939.
It was a lack of imagination on our part. While just a few weeks ago, Joe Biden was denouncing Russian President Vladimir Putin as a dictator, Donald Trump reserves this label for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Everything seems as if the president of the United States is reading a script written by the Kremlin.
Zelensky is not legitimate, the electoral process that was supposed to take place in 2024 (he had been elected president in 2019) was suspended (due solely to the war, of course). The same had happened with Winston Churchill during World War II.
Empire of lies
Trump is simply echoing Moscow’s arguments. It is Ukraine that is responsible for the war. It should have accepted Russia’s terms. So many lives could have been saved, so many cities spared!
The solution was of biblical simplicity: surrender. Before rejoining the Russian Empire, Ukraine would have, in a transitional phase, “benefited” from the status of Belarus.
What if Trump was an agent in the service of Russia?
For Trump, the “deal” was excellent. In any case, Zelensky should have submitted to the law of the strongest. We knew that for Trump, the concept of truth was relative. But we didn’t think he would go this far: joining the “empire of lies,” at the center of which Putin reigns as the undisputed master.
This betrayal of Ukraine was so swift and so violent that one can only wonder. What if Trump was an agent in the service of Russia? I am not generally sensitive to conspiracy theories and tend to favor explanations based on stupidity. Although men make history, they not know the history they are making — are very often mistaken in defining their interests.
Yet faced with the radical nature of Trump’s recent reversal of alliances, one can only express doubt. And act accordingly.
Washington’s betrayal
“When one person is missing, the whole world seems depopulated,” 19th-century French writer and diplomat Alphonse de Lamartine wrote. “One actor changes, and everything is thrown off course,” we could say today, referring to the United States and the balance of the world. In the wake of the USSR’s collapse, NATO faced an existential question.
Why continue to exist without the Russian threat? Today, for NATO, the question has flipped. How can it exist without U.S. participation? To plagiarize U.S. Vice President JD Vance and his Munich speech, “the main threat is internal.” The United States has chosen regime change within before proceeding to a reversal of alliances abroad.
Abandoning Ukraine is to betray who we are.
With UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron both visiting Washington this week, they should inspire themselves with the Entente Cordiale, between France and the United Kingdom which was signed on April 8, 1904. If there’s one country that has shown clarity and firmness since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine three years ago, it’s the United Kingdom.
Faced with the “betrayal of Washington,” neither Paris nor London should dream of being the privileged intermediary between Europe and the United States: Starmer, in the name of the special relationship between London and Washington, and Macron, solely due to his charm.
It is not about seducing Trump, dreaming of bringing him to his senses but about resisting him: in the name of defending our interests and staying true to our values. Abandoning Ukraine is to betray who we are. It is also the guarantee that, after dishonor, we will face war.
