-Analysis-
PARIS — It seems like a long time ago indeed that we were discussing ceasefires — or even simply negotiations for a truce in Ukraine. Donald Trump failed, Vladimir Putin pretended to take part, Volodymyr Zelensky never believed in it.
Since then, all-out war has reclaimed center stage.
In this new phase, each side is trying to prove it can impose an even greater cost on the other. Russia launched nearly 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine on Monday — the heaviest bombardment since the war began more than three years ago. The attacks were so intense, including in the usually less-affected west of Ukraine, that Poland put its air force on alert just in case…
The bombardments resumed early Tuesday in Kyiv and Odessa.
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Ukraine, for its part, carried out another daring operation on Russian soil, sending a commando unit over 500 kilometers beyond its borders to destroy at least two Russian military aircraft at an airbase. This followed last week’s Ukrainian drone attacks that destroyed Russian strategic bombers.
In practical terms, these operations don’t significantly alter the balance of power — except to show that neither side is willing to back down.
Physical vs. psychological warfare
Vladimir Putin continues to bombard Ukrainian cities to break civilian morale and destroy vital infrastructure. Meanwhile, his troops slowly gain ground in the northeast, although at the cost of heavy troop casualties. Yet they remain unable to achieve decisive victories in the face of Ukrainian resolve.
The U.S. president’s bravado has been matched only by his lack of resolve to put pressure on Putin.
Ukraine’s response is on another front — the one it knows best: psychological operations aimed at shaking Russian public opinion. This is what political scientist Anna Colin Lebedev calls “the power of the weak.” By striking Russian airbases twice in the span of a week and destroying aircraft worth millions each, Ukraine humiliates Putin and exposes his vulnerability — especially with last week’s destruction of strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Yet neither Russia’s advances nor Ukraine’s bold operations have shifted the power balance enough to alter the course of the war.
Peace was never on the table
In reality, the diplomatic option never truly existed — aside from the prisoner exchange deal reached in early June in Istanbul, which only came to fruition Monday. Talks were only entertained because Donald Trump had made a campaign promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours.
The U.S. president’s bravado has been matched only by his lack of resolve to put pressure on Putin, as their recent phone conversations clearly demonstrated.
Putin believes time is on his side
Putin has not backed down from any of his maximalist demands toward Ukraine, making any compromise impossible. With tacit support from China, North Korea, and Iran, the Russian president believes time is on his side — as long as the U.S. hesitates and Europeans do what they can, within obvious limits.
That leaves Ukraine with only one option: to convince Russians that they cannot win, and that the cost of continuing the war will only rise. This will take time, blood, and tears.
