-Analysis-
PARIS — From Donald Trump’s inaugural address on Monday at the Capitol, one important word was missing: “ally.” It’s a concept that is not part of the vocabulary of the 47th president of the United States. And its absence is enough to worry, if not alarm, Europeans.
Trump’s geopolitical project — which is becoming increasingly clear — is to rebuild the international order based solely on America’s strength: economic, technological, military and even psychological, judging by the barely veiled threats he issues. This project runs counter to the world that the United States itself helped build and lead after World War II. That world was based on a network of alliances, multilateral organizations and the rule of law, even though the reality of that world often contradicted those principles.
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Paradoxically, in his desire to break away from what has already become the “old world,” Trump aligns with the fiercest rivals of the United States, such as China and Russia, as well as emerging countries in the Global South, which are demanding a seat at the decision-making table.
Devalued security guarantees
Alone, or nearly so, Europe remains clinging to the international order of yesterday: It is on the verge of becoming the “Asterix village” of international law in a world driven by power dynamics.
We are not there yet, but this is the direction indicated by Trump and his key allies. The first consequence is obviously on Europe’s defense, with enormous uncertainty about the intentions of the president of the country that effectively leads NATO, as well as the looming trade wars.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a leader from a Nordic country, when we pressed her with questions about the concept of European strategic autonomy, interrupted us by saying: “My job is to ensure that the Americans stay in Europe to protect us.”
Two years later, what might this leader think upon realizing that the political vision of the U.S. president is purely transactional, and that the security guarantee, which serves as the lifeline of her country, has suddenly been devalued?
Europe’s response
Europeans have been talking about European defense for a long time, and much has been achieved since the rude awakening of the Russian invasion. Yet it is still far from enough to compensate for the sudden shift that is beginning in Washington.
On Wednesday, in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the occasion of the 62nd anniversary of Franco-German reconciliation. The speeches reflected the new context of the Trump presidency.
Europe, as the saying goes, is never as effective as when it is backed into a corner.
But the reality revealed the current European fragility. First, in the distance within Franco-German relations: Macron addressed Scholz with the formal “vous,” while Scholz responded with the informal “tu.” But more importantly, the chancellor is likely to lose the upcoming elections, and the German model is shaken. As for France, its political crisis means its voice carries less weight.
The 27 EU member states will meet on Feb. 3 in Brussels for an informal summit. Europe, as the saying goes, is never as effective as when it is backed into a corner. It finds itself there, both in its technological lag, its security weakness and its political disunity. This is the moment to prove that it can bounce back.
