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PARIS – It’s the kind of question no one ever expected to ask — after all, the alliance reaching across both sides of the Atlantic has dominated the post-World War II order. This bond has weathered countless crises, including in 2019 when French President Emmanuel Macron famously declared NATO was experiencing “brain death.”
Since then, the alliance had staged a comeback; but with Donald Trump in the White House for barely a month, that chapter is already closing.
If there were ever a symbolic act to illustrate this yet-to-be-official breakup, what happened at the United Nations on Monday would be it: watching the United States vote on a resolution about Ukraine alongside Russia and its allies like North Korea included, while and against European Union nations shattered a seemingly unthinkable taboo.
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Europeans long believed that the United States was their ultimate security guarantee against the resurgent Russian threat on the continent. Just two years ago, the leader of a Northern European country told us that her mission was to ensure that “America stays in Europe to protect us.” That certainty is now a thing of the past.
Is the US still an ally?
Has the United States truly become an adversary? That’s the ambiguity of the current situation. We saw it in action during Macron’s brief visit to Washington: The French president went to defend positions directly opposed to those of Trump on Ukraine, but he could only do so by first engaging in the ritual of flattery and reminding everyone of the historic Franco-American friendship. Here we are, Lafayette, he said, evoking the past.
Macron may have said he is convinced that the United States is still an ally of Europe but doubt has crept in; and when it comes to security issues, doubt can be deadly. The moment of truth will likely come at the next Trump-Putin summit.
This explains the whirlwind of consultations and announcements about increased defense investments sweeping across Europe. This morning, Europeans are meeting virtually to hear Macron’s debrief after his talks with Trump. A mini-summit on defense is set for Sunday in London, followed by a European Council meeting on March 6. We’ve never talked so much on the continent.
Europe’s defense plans in motion
The EU27 are caught in a bind: They can’t realistically hope to build an alternative to the American umbrella in just a few weeks, but they also know they can no longer rely on it. Ukraine is the first test. But beyond that, if Estonia — a NATO member — were in danger, who could honestly believe that Trump would come to its aid?
The rise in European defense budgets is nothing short of spectacular. On Tuesday, the British announced an increase to 2.5% of GDP, following Denmark’s decision to double its defense spending; Poland is now nearing 5%.
European defense still needs to be built.
For France, Macron also aims for 3 to 3.5% of GDP, up from the current 2%, despite a tight budgetary situation. But in the event of a complete American withdrawal, some estimates push that figure to 7%, signaling a dramatic shift in the global order.
But these investments don’t mean that European defense will automatically come to fruition; it still needs to be built. In the meantime, is the United States an ally — or an adversary? Both at the same time, no doubt, which captures the complexity of this new era we’re living in, with no shortage of uncertainty for what’s ahead.
