-Analysis-
PARIS – When two powerful nations are both convinced that war between them is inevitable, how can it be prevented? This is the case for the United States and China, self-declared rivals yet deeply intertwined through countless connections. While Europeans remain fixated on the looming threat of Russia, Americans are unmistakably obsessed with China’s rising power.
The response from China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson to the new U.S. tariffs was striking in its bluntness: “If the United States,” he declared, “has other intentions and insists on a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, China will fight to the very end.”
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This chillingly martial tone echoes the remarks made by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to his European counterparts. He bluntly stated that he saw war with China as “inevitable,” and that the United States needed to keep the weapons it was producing for that eventuality rather than supplying them to Europe. Once again, the message is chilling.
Little love for Uncle Sam
All this, without necessarily going to war. Military contacts had resumed, and consultation processes were underway — much like during the Cold War between Washington and Moscow. That didn’t stop both sides from imposing technological sanctions or trading barbs, though it all remained within a somewhat controlled framework.
This uncertainty is one of Trump’s negotiating strengths.
With Donald Trump, diplomatic subtleties have no place. The new U.S. president favors blunt and humiliating remarks. Slapping an additional 10% tariff on China — bringing the total to 20% — right as Beijing kicks off its most important political event of the year, the annual parliamentary Two Sessions meetings, is either reckless or outright provocative.
In any case, a harsh and immediate response was inevitable; even in China, the general public doesn’t take kindly to being pushed around by Uncle Sam.
Alliances and flashpoints
There are wars that are deliberately started, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there are those that can’t be prevented. Take, for instance, the recent confirmation by the United States of its alliance treaty with the Philippines.
It might seem like a minor move, but the archipelago in the South China Sea is one of the flashpoints — along with Taiwan and the Sea of Japan — where such a conflict could erupt. China claims a maritime area that overlaps with Philippine waters, and limited skirmishes between the two navies happen regularly. What happens when an incident escalates, resulting in casualties?
Chinese leaders have been convinced for years that war with the United States is inevitable, and they are preparing for it. This sentiment now appears to be shared by the new administration in Washington, which has no intention of allowing China to claim its spot as the world’s leading power.
Chinese leaders are wondering whether the current pressure is a prelude to confrontation, or if it is meant to set the stage for one of Trump’s major “deals.” This uncertainty is one of Trump’s negotiating strengths; but it also carries the risk of confrontation between two countries that have long been playing with the fire of war.
