Tehran, Evacuate! Israel Is Taking Its Ruthless “Dahiya” Doctrine To A Whole New Level

-Analysis-

It was Monday when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an unprecedented and alarming message to people living in Iran’s capital: “Evacuate Tehran, we are taking action.” This was the first time we can recall any modern world leader ever directly urging the complete evacuation of a foreign capital.

Netanyahu’s message, which coincided with Israel’s targeted attacks on command centers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the state broadcaster and critical infrastructures in Tehran, had a dimension that went well beyond pure military operations. It was a warning of the gradual collapse of the Iranian regime’s power from within.

Hours later, Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social network: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” repeating the Israeli message and reinforcing its psychological intention.

At first glance, the warnings seemed utterly unrealistic. A Tuesday report on Al Jazeera, headlined Trump Warns Tehran Residents to ‘Evacuate Immediately,’ But Can They?, provided a detailed and documented answer to this question.

An Al Jazeera correspondent reported from on the ground on conditions inside Tehran, with a population of more than 10 million inside the city and about 15 million in its wider metropolitan area, observing the lack of infrastructures for mass evacuation, limited exit routes, constant heavy traffic and absence of official bomb shelters for citizens. Leaving by car, a journey that would normally take 7 to 8 hours, would now take up to 24 hours, the report stated.

Tehran, in its current state, can neither be evacuated nor effectively resist a massive attack. But this is precisely the core of this component of Israel’s strategy. The evacuation warning, while not possible in practical terms, is designed as a massive psychological operation to sow distrust and utterly demoralize society before its would-be impending destruction.

Devastating military doctrine

Behind this lies a military concept, which Israel incorporated in its strategic doctrine in 2006: the Dahiya Doctrine. Developed by General Gadi Eisenkot during Israel’s war with Hezbollah that year, the doctrine, is named after a Beirut suburb and Hezbollah bastion. It’s a doctrine with its own logic of maximum deterrence: if the enemy uses the urban fabric for cover and operations, the response must be so devastating and destructive as to destroy not just its military power, but also the social and psychological bases supporting it.

The strategy was used in subsequent wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon, with attacks on schools, hospitals, media centers and even electricity and water infrastructures. What is happening in Tehran however is the doctrine’s biggest and most dangerous implementation in a major world capital.

According to the doctrine, this is only the beginning.

Israel’s precision airstrikes on key Revolutionary Guards facilities, the disruption of telecommunication facilities and Netanyahu’s general evacuation order are all signs of the first phase of the Dahiya Doctrine being implemented in Tehran.

According to the doctrine, this is only the beginning.

Breaking down a regime from within

The second phase, which all the evidence now suggests is imminent, involves widespread destruction and targeting of urban areas, regardless of their demographic composition or civilian function. From the doctrine’s perspective, the entire capital, as long as the government is based there, is considered a legitimate target.

But the Dahiya Doctrine is not just about missiles and bombing; it is about breaking down the pillars of a regime’s power from within, by destroying command institutions, weakening security authority and creating a sense of helplessness in society.

What must collapse is not just the city as a geography, but the urban system as source of authority and cohesion.

Israel’s goal here is not to attack the Iranian people, but to bring down the ruling political-military structure. The regime is hiding its legitimacy and security behind the walls of the capital, and these are crumbling.

In the view of those who designed the doctrine, what must collapse is not just the city as a geography, but the urban system as source of authority and cohesion. Its continued implementation would reduce Tehran into another suburb — like Beirut’s Dahiya — psychologically, politically and across its media image, before it is physically destroyed.

Tehran may still have its towers standing, but something inside it has cracked: people’s trust and confidence, the government’s authority and its residents’ sense of security.

That is precisely the point this doctrine seeks: internal defeat first, followed by external collapse.