-Analysis-
LONDON —Tehran, which is anticipating a showdown with Washington, has taken note of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s public humiliation by U.S. President Donald Trump the White House. Regime hardliners, who broadly favor Iran’s alignment with China and Russia, were delighted at Trump’s treatment of Zelensky, with Iranian Culture Minister Muhammad Mehdi Islmaili saying this was the “inevitable fate of all those begging for talks with America and Trump.”
Even reformist former Vice President Muhammad Ali Abtahi wrote online, “just imagine if [Iranian President Masoud] Pezeshkian had been sitting in front of Trump”; Iranians “must believe” nothing good can come of talking to Trump.
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Billboards have gone up in Tehran and some provincial towns showing Trump and Zelensky arguing, with the hashtag “#Ukraine_Lesson” and the phrase “Relying on the wind” in Persian. Some regime supporters say the incident showed Iran‘s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was right not allow the government to negotiate with Trump, and consider it a sign of Khamenei’s experience and understanding of American policies.
For some time now, regime figures have been speculating on whether Russia struck an informal deal with the United States on the fate of Iran. The first to public mention this possibility was former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who said on Jan. 27, 2022 “I have accurate information that Russia and America have reached an agreement on Ukraine and Iran.” The United States “would allow Russia to enter Ukraine” in return for Russia letting it “pressure Iran,” Ahmadinejad said. At the time, Democratic President Joe Biden was still in office.
The former head of parliament’s National Security committee, Hishmatullah Falahatpisheh, has also issued repeated warnings about Russia as an unreliable ally for Iran.
Less important to Putin
With Trump’s return to power, Russia is rapidly moving closer to the United States. Meanwhile Iran’s position has weakened, following Israel’s blows to its regional proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, and the fall of its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad. Domestically, the government is also facing economic crisis and widespread dissatisfaction, which is exacerbated by increased Western sanctions. In this context, U.S.-Russian rapprochement could further jeopardize the Iran’s position.
Putin may act as Trump’s lobbyist with Tehran and Khamenei.
On Feb. 25, when Russia and the United States voted against a UN General Assembly resolution aimed at Russia, Iran abstained. Is this a signal that Tehran, which for years enjoyed Russian support at the UN, now understands it may be facing a change in Russia’s stance that could wreck its security? Like Ukraine, Iran too, seems to have been relying on a fair-weather friend.
If the Ukraine war were to end, Russia would no longer need Iran’s drones and missiles; and it would have fewer incentives to offer concessions or broad support to Tehran. As Tehran and Moscow move apart, the greater the international pressure on Iran.
Disarmament and ideology
Sources say that, just as the United States is openly pressuring Ukraine to reach a peace deal, Russian has been covertly pressuring Iran to accept a deal with the Trump administration.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent trip to Tehran may have been in line with that. And Bloomberg reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to mediate talks between Washington and Tehran.
Trump’s demands for Iran are clear: shutting down its uranium enrichment and ballistic programs, cutting off funding to regional proxy militias and possibly even recognizing Israel. These constitute a mix of disarmament and ideological concessions on the regime’s part, which, it insists for now, it could never accept.
Trump’s lobbyist
If Putin has agreed to mediate, this may mean he will be acting as Trump’s lobbyist with Tehran and Khamenei. Russia’s supporters in Tehran may be forced to accept what is dictated to them from Moscow, which could further divide the country’s decision makers.
This pressure may yield desirable results for Washington and Moscow but it is dangerous for a regime that made itself almost entirely reliant on China and Russia as counterweights to the West.
How long can Iranian leaders continue their defiance if Putin joins Trump’s pressures on Tehran? Would Russia step in as might have been hoped, to back the regime if mass protests break out as a result of the economic crisis? The regime may have boxed itself into a corner by placing the country’s fate in Putin‘s hands.
