-Analysis-
PARIS – Donald Trump isn’t pulling any punches. European leaders, who have been scrambling since Friday to mend ties between the presidents of the United States and Ukraine, have run into a brick wall. Yesterday, Trump froze $1 billion in approved military aid for Ukraine — an unprecedented move of this scale.
The goal is to force Volodymyr Zelensky’s hand — or even push him out of power, as some top Republicans have called for. Officially, the aid will be released if the Ukrainian president shows “good will” in negotiating with Vladimir Putin’s Russia – on terms dictated by Trump.
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It is exceptionally brutal diplomacy with a country that is supposed to be, if not an ally, at least a friend; at war, moreover, with a power that has invaded its territory. But as far as Trump is concerned, Zelensky disrespected him in the Oval Office, and he must pay by submitting: if he agrees to humiliate himself, the aid freeze will be lifted.
Trump wants a deal
The Europeans who gathered in London on Sunday (just a few of them), and who will meet again as 27 in Brussels on Thursday, will be dismayed. The transatlantic divorce in progress since Jan. 20 has reached a decisive stage.
Trump is desperate to strike a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, both to crown himself as a “man of peace” and to enable U.S. businesses to return to Moscow. He has made multiple gestures toward Putin, including yesterday’s halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia, or the dismantling of agencies responsible for monitoring Russian disinformation.
There’s an interesting parallel with what’s happening with Israel.
Anyone who stands in Trump’s way will be crushed. He only has respect for “empires,” not for “small” countries that will find their place in spheres of influence.
Ukraine’s foreign minister recently said that there should be no “new Yalta,” an allusion to the division of the world into spheres of influence at the end of WWII; his worst fears have since been confirmed.
Ukraine vs. Israel
There’s an interesting parallel with what’s happening with Israel. We learned on Monday that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had fast-tracked the approval of billion in military aid to Israel. This comes as the ceasefire in Gaza is on the verge of collapsing any day now. Israel has already illegally cut off humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territory, with the agreement of the U.S. administration.
Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden had suspended certain shipments of particularly deadly bombs to Israel at the end of his term, a move that Trump quickly reversed. But at no point, even when he was in complete disagreement with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, did Biden suspend all aid to Israel.
Ukraine and Israel are two very different issues, of course. But Trump administration’s brutality toward the former, and its complacency toward the latter, has only one explanation. That is Trump’s personal relationship with each leader: disdain for the not very malleable Zelensky; unconditional support for Netanyahu, who knows how to speak to the Narcissus in the White House.
Something to think about, particularly for those who hold fast to the law and loyalty to alliances, in these times of total and disturbing strategic upheaval.
