Zelensky To Putin: If You Want War, You’ll Get It — And On Our Terms

-Analysis-

It was the perfect counterstrike: militarily, diplomatically, and politically. If reports are accurate, around 40 strategic bombers (the Tu-95 “Bear” and Tu-22M3) and A-50 surveillance planes, Russia’s equivalent of AWACS, were either destroyed or seriously damaged on the ground at airbases inside Russian territory, including the Belaya base in eastern Siberia near the Mongolian border.

Ukraine has exacted a steep price for a war that Russia stubbornly insists on continuing. Those who live by the sword, fall by the sword.

The political message may carry even more weight than the physical damage: if Kyiv can launch attacks near Lake Baikal, deep in the heart of Eurasia, then who in Moscow or Yekaterinburg can still sleep peacefully?

The timing (right before a new round of direct peace talks in Istanbul) may be a coincidence, since Operation Spider Web had been in the works for a-year-and-a-half. But it arrives as a stark diplomatic slap in the face to a Russia that has spent two months refusing a ceasefire before any negotiations.

Moscow wants to come to the table without silencing its guns, and while stepping up its bombardment of Ukrainian cities and civilians. Well, here is Kyiv’s reply, right in the middle of Siberia, aimed at strategic military targets.

The military balance still favors Russia, which continues to make frontline gains on the ground. A major missile strike on a Ukrainian training center is believed to have led to the resignation of the commander of Kyiv’s ground forces.

Drone factor

So Ukraine has struck back where Russia’s strength in sheer numbers doesn’t matter. According to Kyiv’s account, videos captured by ever-present cell phones, and confirmation from Russian officials including Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev, the drones were hidden on passing trucks near the airbases, most likely without the drivers’ knowledge, though they’ll still have to face the Russian authorities. Then a remote operator, sitting thousands of kilometers away, took control.

As many experts have noted, this was a “brilliant” combination of intelligence, advanced technology, and basic, low-cost tools. Ukraine is now mass-producing drones. Even if we discount Kyiv’s estimate of two (or seven?) billion dollars in damage to the Russian Air Force, even if some of the targeted aircraft eventually return to service, Kyiv still comes out ahead.

Russia is now facing serious questions about the vulnerability of its military infrastructure

Moscow’s only response so far has been to claim that all the drones were shot down. But from Ukraine’s perspective, the military equation of Operation Spider Web is clear: minimal costs, maximum effect. For Russia, it’s the opposite. They were caught off guard and are now facing serious questions about the vulnerability of their military infrastructure, a situation similar to the Black Sea, where the Russian fleet remains docked for fear of long-range Ukrainian torpedoes.

Politically, Ukraine’s counterattack comes at a moment when both sides want the war to end, but on very different terms. Ukraine wants a truce right away. Russia wants a victory before any truce.

Root causes

If Kyiv’s strike sends a message that the victory Moscow is chasing is out of reach — that Ukraine, though weaker, can still impose unacceptable costs and risks — then the signal to Putin is clear: be content with what you’ve already taken, leave us what remains, and let us keep our independence.

Otherwise, we will remain an implacable enemy. When Putin refers to his goal of eliminating the “root causes” of the conflict, he is referring to Ukraine’s independence from Moscow. But today, the Russian president is faced with a Ukraine that wants peace yet shows it is still fully capable of waging war, to Russia’s detriment.

We are doing everything we can to make Russia feel the need to end this war.

Kyiv has now accepted that in order to achieve peace and preserve its independence it must tolerate Russia’s control of nearly all the territory seized since 2014 and at the start of this war. Ukraine won’t recognize Russian sovereignty over those areas, but it will resign itself to the reality on the ground.

Even Sunday’s operation served the cause of a ceasefire, not the goal of defeating Moscow outright. “We are doing everything we can to make Russia feel the need to end this war,” Zelensky said, commenting on the “brilliant” operation, which he personally oversaw. The Ukrainian president knows he is walking a tightrope, careful not to jeopardize the progress he has made with Donald Trump.

Sundays action must not appear to Washington as an escalation that could brand him as an obstacle to peace. An anonymous Ukrainian official claims the U.S. president had been informed; the White House quickly denied it.

Ukrainian drones ready to take flight. — Photo: Volodymyr Zelensky’s official Facebook page

On our own

Kyiv is scrambling to reassure its allies, even sharing photos of the drones in storage, to prove that it was entirely a Ukrainian operation. These images serve two purposes: to say, “we did this on our own,” and to cut off any accusations from Europe or the U.S. over the attack — especially with Russia fuming about Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s approval to use German weapons against targets inside Russian territory.

This all happened ahead of the second round of truce talks in Istanbul on Monday. Ukraine’s diplomats have already laid its cards on the table. They are calling for a ceasefire, the exchange of all prisoners of war, and the return of all kidnapped children. Then negotiations can begin.

Russia will finally reveal its long-guarded memorandum. Unless there are unexpected developments (which would be welcome) it will likely be the same old script: unacceptable to Kyiv and to Trump alike.

The delegations will go home with little to show for their efforts. Things will only change if the Kremlin resigns itself to peace. If it refuses, Ukraine has made one thing strikingly clear with Sunday’s operation: it is willing and able to keep fighting.