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War’s shadow continue to hang heavily over the skies of the Middle East. Following its successful operation in June and precision strikes on the Iranian regime’s nuclear and command centers, Israel is increasingly forced to permanently stabilize the balance of power in its favor.
The signs are clear: satellite images of extensive movements of Israeli air units show that a new operation is likely to be underway in the coming weeks, and that it will not be a large-scale battle but a limited, precision strike. Its goal is clear: to disable the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities while they remain incomplete, and totally eliminate the missile and command infrastructure that poses a direct threat to Tel Aviv and Haifa.
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Analysts say Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Qatar on Tuesday targeting Tehran-backed Hamas leaders are actually a prelude to a resumption of strikes on Iran itself.
Western intelligence sources confirm that the Israeli secret service Mossad has been planning a complex network of infiltration and sabotage operations since last summer. The operations include disabling radar systems in Iran with small drones and pinpoint missiles, as was done successfully in the June attack, though with more advanced techniques this time and in the next operation. Israel knows that this time it must deliver the final blow.
In Tehran, the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are well aware that the next attack could completely destroy their defensive backbone, which is why Iran deployed Bavar 373 and Khordad 15 missile defense systems around sensitive sites such as Fordow and Natanz in recent weeks. Yet experts know this layer of defense will not be enough to withstand a wave of Israeli airstrikes, as Israel is able to simultaneously use missiles targeting air defense systems and suicide drones to cripple Iran’s defense structure.
Some European security sources say Israel is focusing on a “blinding strike.” That is, a blow that would destroy all the IRGC command centers and lines of communication before any reaction, which would be a turning point in the history of Middle Eastern air warfare. But there’s one big open question: what would be the social impact of such an attack?
Israel believes its attack would plunge Tehran’s revolutionary regime into a combined crisis of security, economic and social collapse
Security analyses indicate — and I myself believe — that if a second operation were carried out, Iranians would take to impulsively take to the streets, because the attack would destroy not just the military infrastructure but also the regime’s psychological leverage.
The planning has been done in such a way that widespread power outages, internet shutdowns and the collapse of security control would cause internal chaos and in such conditions, people would be forced to leave their homes to save themselves. That is exactly what Israel and its allies are counting on because the government structure in Tehran will lose the ability to control the population after losing logistical and financial support.
The “Domino Effect”
Reports indicate that Israeli special forces teams have designed a scenario in recent months, based on a detailed analysis of Iranian social behavior, known as the “domino effect.” According to this plan, the initial military strike is only a signal for the beginning of internal collapse. As soon as the public will witness severe damage to sensitive centers like the IRGC, the Intelligence ministry and missile bases, confidence in the government’s power will collapse, and a spontaneous wave of widespread protests would erupt in major cities, from Tehran to Isfahan and Shiraz.
Israel’s operation would be not just a military strike but a complex psychological and social plan distinguishes it from all previous attacks.
These protests will spread without formal organization in the first hours, but at an unpredictable speed while at the most critical moments, IRGC command circles will be unable to suppress them as communication lines and command centers have been destroyed.
The fact that Israel’s second operation would be not just a military strike but a complex psychological and social plan distinguishes it from all previous attacks. Intelligence experts say Israel believes its attack would plunge Tehran’s revolutionary regime into a combined crisis of security, economic and social collapse, with no alternative structure to manage the situation.
In those conditions, a wave of protests could bring down the entire polity without a single shot being fired, which is what Israeli security analysts refer to as the decisive moment. It is the moment in which the people, not the army, will put an end to the regime.
