-Analysis-
PARIS — The surprise did not come from the bombings themselves — Israel has been planning such an operation for years — but from the timing.
U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a close associate of Donald Trump, was scheduled to meet this Sunday in the Sultanate of Oman with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi. It was seen as a last-chance meeting to reach a new nuclear agreement. The reports over the past 24 hours of a possible Israeli attack seemed designed to apply maximum pressure on Tehran ahead of this critical encounter.
Questions have immediately risen about the role of the United States. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, quickly declared that Washington was not involved in the Israeli attack, calling it “unilateral.” But this statement appears primarily aimed at shielding American installations in the region from potential Iranian retaliation.
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It seems highly unlikely that Israel would have launched such a risky operation targeting Iran’s military and nuclear facilities without at least a tacit green light from Washington.
To understand this, we need to look back: During the two brief confrontations between Iran and Israel last year, the Biden administration had forbidden Israel from striking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Israel depends on U.S. intelligence and cover for operations of this scale.
Significant strikes
With Trump’s return to power, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revived his plan to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Yet the U.S. president initially opted to open negotiations with Tehran, much to Israel’s dismay. Those negotiations reached a deadlock over the key point of disagreement: The U.S. demand that Iran halt its uranium enrichment. Tehran has already refused.
On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, had condemned Iran for the first time in 20 years for “non-compliance” with its nuclear obligations. In plain terms, Iran is enriching uranium to levels sufficient to produce a nuclear weapon.
A new front with Iran underscores how war continues to be the default mode in the Middle East.
Israel, for its part, claims to have provided the U.S. with evidence that Iran is on the verge of reaching the nuclear threshold — something Trump is determined to prevent during his term, especially after having torn up the 2018 nuclear deal without offering a viable alternative.
This time, the Israeli strikes were significant, targeting both individuals — such as the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Hossein Salami, who was killed last night — and nuclear scientists, as well as known uranium enrichment sites like Natanz, located 250 kilometers from Tehran.
What comes next?
Iran has already launched more than 100 drones at Israel on Friday morning and vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region in the event of any attack on its nuclear program.
Everything will depend on what it targets. If it attacks U.S. bases in Iraq and the Gulf, or Saudi and Emirati oil installations, the situation could quickly spiral into a broader escalation. The alternative would be a symbolic retaliation, aimed at limiting damage and preserving the Iranian regime. In that case, Israel would claim a strategic victory — buying time and delaying the nuclear threat.
While Gaza remains under Israeli fire, the opening of a new front with Iran underscores how war continues to be the default mode in the Middle East. Israel enjoys military superiority and is asserting it — but at the risk of trapping itself in a cycle of perpetual war.
