VATICAN CITY — The precedent that resonates most with today’s vote comes from the 2005 conclave, and the reported conversation between Germany’s Joseph Ratzinger and Italy’s Carlo Maria Martini after the first-day vote. In order not to divide the Church, the two cardinals with the highest number of votes agreed to both withdraw and negotiate a compromise name — José Saraiva Martins of Portugal.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
At the very decisive moment, however, when Martini stepped back, Ratzinger did not — and he was elected as Pope Benedict XVI. And here we are, 20 years later: Italian Pietro Parolin and Filipino Luis Tagle will sit in a small room in Santa Marta, after having assessed their respective strengths in the first vote on Wednesday, and after the leader of the conservatives Péter Erdő of Hungary and the progressive Italian Matteo Zuppi have decided where to channel their small treasure of votes.
The Parolin-Tagle agreement is in the cards, with the withdrawal of the Filipino cardinal in exchange for his appointment as Vatican Secretary of State.
Decisive vote transfers
Parolin can count on influential Italian cardinals including Angelo De Donatis, the Vatican’s Major Penitentiary, and Marcello Semeraro, prefect of the Causes of Saints, the Vatican Vicar General Mauro Gambetti, the Archbishop of Siena Paolo Lojudice, and the head of the Dicastery for Eastern Churches, Claudio Gugerotti.
A voting cardinal who works inside the Roman Curia explained to La Stampa: “If Tagle directs his votes to Parolin, there will be a new Pope by Friday. The attempt to disqualify the cardinals of the Curia and the diplomats has failed.”
The consortiums do not reveal all their cards so as not to burn them.
The well-placed source added: “The consortiums do not reveal all their cards so as not to burn them. You don’t get the pontificate title back to Italy without converging on a compatriot at the very top of the list like Parolin.”
From the last meeting of the General Congregation of Cardinals, there is no clear indication on what policy changes could be in store for the Church in the next pontificate. The first smoke — which will be a black one — will be the time for each cardinal to take its own measure, to calculate its weight and influence.
Signals of smoke
Beginning Thursday, there will be four votes each day, with two signals of smoke from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, one at the end of the morning and one in late afternoon. That is, unless the cardinals can lift the reservation sooner, and reach the necessary two-thirds votes.
For Churchmen, faith is communal, not just individual.
“Some cardinals are not aspirants themselves, however, they become collectors of votes and references in the second instance,” explains Church historian Carlo Felice Casula. “The various internal consortiums are not partisan currents, they are not rigid affiliations: for Churchmen, faith is communal, not just individual. Parolin’s strong position demonstrates that it is not just a matter of individual freedom, but of social practice.”
Meanwhile, before entering conclave, voters are making Francis’ legacy their own and calling for a halt to all wars, from Ukraine to the Middle East to the dozens of forgotten conflicts in Africa and Asia. “Peace cannot be imposed — this is Parolin’s lesson — Only through dialogue can we get out of the spiral of war.”
The election of the Vatican’s current Secretary of State, a highly skilled diplomat, would be a clear signal of continuity with what was sown by Francis around the world.
But continuity is also required for reforms at home: from legislation on priest abuse to the tightening of finances in the Vatican. And in the absence of white smoke soon, everything will be back on the table. Favorites, outsiders, and surprises.
