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TOPIC: diplomacy

FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War

The Gaza Ceasefire Is Over, With Western Diplomacy Weaker Than Ever

Diplomacy has failed to stave off a resumption of the war in Gaza. Yes, Israel made clear its goal of destroying Hamas is not complete. But the end of the truce is also one more sign that both the U.S. and Europe hold less sway in the region than they once did.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Unfortunately, the end of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was predictable. In a previous column this week, I wrote that the question was not whether the war would resume, but rather when (and how) it would resume. Israel has made it clear in recent days that it has not yet achieved its goal of destroying Hamas in Gaza, and that it still intends to do just that.

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Still, international diplomacy has not been idle. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Israel on Thursday: the United States was putting pressure on Israel so that, once the conflict resumed, it would inflict fewer civilian casualties — a more “surgical” war.

It is obviously too early to know if Blinken’s words have been heard. The only question is whether Israel will apply the same massive strategy in the south of the territory as in the north, or if the country will carry out more targeted operations, in a region with a very high population density.

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Henry Kissinger: The World's Love-And-Hate Adieu To The Machiavelli Of Washington

China shares praise, Cambodia throws shade, Germans show pride … and from Moscow?

PARIS — The death of Henry Kissinger at the age of 100 marks not only the end of a U.S. foreign policy legend, but the end of an era in geopolitical history. The controversial German-born architect of late 20th-century American power influenced statecraft around the world before, during and well after his years as U.S. secretary of state and national security advisor under two presidents.

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Whether considered the consummate “Machiavellian” operator, bloodstained Cold War puppet master or the embodiment of the American Dream, the entire world is marking the passing of this highly divisive and influential diplomat and power broker:

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How Biden's Mideast Stance Weakens Israel And Emboldens Iran

The West's decision to pressure Israel over Gaza, and indulge Iran's violent and troublesome regime, follows the U.S. Democrats' line with the Middle East: just keep us out of your murderous affairs.

-OpEd-

The Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is weak both structurally and for its dismal popularity level, which has made it take some contradictory, or erratic, decisions in its war against Hamas in Gaza.

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Other factors influencing its decisions include the pressures of the families of Hamas hostages, and the U.S. administration's lukewarm support for this government and entirely reactive response to the military provocations and "hit-and-run" incidents orchestrated by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies, which include Hamas. Israel has also failed to mobilize international opinion behind its war on regional terrorism, in what might be termed a full-blown public relations disaster.

The administration led by President Joe Biden has, by repeating the Democrats' favored, and some might say feeble, policy of appeasing Iran's revolutionary regime, duly nullified the effects of Western sanctions imposed on that regime. By delisting its proxies, the Houthis of Yemen, as terrorists, the administration has allowed them to devote their energies to firing drones and missiles across the Red Sea and even indulging in piracy. The general picture is of a moment of pitiful weakness for the West, in which Iran and other members of the Axis - of Evil or Resistance, take your pick - are daily cocking a snook at the Western powers.

You wonder: how could the United States, given its military and technological resources, fail to spot tankers smuggling out banned Iranian oil through the Persian Gulf to finance the regime's foreign entanglements, while Iran is able to track Israeli-owned ships as far aways as the Indian Ocean? The answer, rather simply, lies in the Biden administration's decision to indulge the ayatollahs and hope for the best.

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Worldcrunch Magazine #60 — Gaza, What's Next?

November 27 - December 3, 2023

Here's the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from top international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Bibi Blinked: How The Ceasefire Deal Could Flip Israel's Whole Gaza War Logic

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed ahead a deal negotiated via Qatar, for a four-day truce and an exchange of 50 hostages for 150 Palestinian prisoners. Though the humanitarian and political pressure was mounting, Israel's all-out assault is suddenly halted, with unforeseen consequences for the future.

Updated Nov. 22, 2023 at 8:55 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's the first piece of good news in 46 days of war. In the early hours of Wednesday, Israel agreed to a deal that included a four-day ceasefire and the release of some of the hostages held by Hamas — 30 children and 20 women — in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners, again women and children. The real question is what happens next.

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But first, this agreement, negotiated through the intermediary of Qatar, whose role is essential in this phase, must be implemented right away. This is a complex negotiation, because unlike the previous hostage-for-prisoner exchanges, it is taking place in the midst of a major war.

On the Palestinian side, although Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is present in Doha, he does not make the decision alone — he must have the agreement of the leaders of the military wing, who are hiding somewhere in Gaza. It takes 24 hours to send a message back and forth. As you can imagine, it's not as simple as a phone call.

And on the Israeli side, a consensus had to be built around the agreement. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right allies were opposed to the deal — in line with their eradication logic — even at the cost of Israeli lives. But the opposition of these discredited parties was ignored, and that will leave its mark.

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Josephine

Why Taiwan Backs Israel Even If Its Own Struggle Mirrors Palestine's

Taiwanese, though under the weight of a far more powerful neighbor, have the tendency to idealize Israel and fail to create a self-definition beyond the island nation's anti-China image.

TAIPEI — After the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, who killed around 1,200 people and took 200 hostages, Israel imposed a complete blockade on Gaza and began a large-scale counteroffensive. Originally, most Western countries fully supported Israel's right of self-defense. However, sentiments have shifted in a section of the west over the past month, with Israel's counterattacks having caused up to 10,000 deaths in Gaza and pushing the Gazan population into a humanitarian crisis, marked by a dire shortage of water, electricity, food, and medicine. With the opening of a new front by Israel on the Lebanese-Syrian border, there are fears that the fighting could expand even further, resulting in an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.

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After the Hamas raid shocked the world, public opinion in the Chinese-speaking world, like in western society, split into two. One side firmly supported Israel's determination to defend its homeland and national sovereignty, while the other side invoked the region's history and sympathized with the Palestinians.

However, unlike in the west, most Chinese people did not choose a side based on well-considered national interests or humanitarian concern for the disadvantaged, but rather based on their attitudes toward the United States and China. Being anti-American or anti-China has become a fundamental factor determining whether you support Palestine or Israel.

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Elias Kassem

The Imminent Israel-Hamas Temporary Ceasefire — Can It Become Permanent?

A five-day ceasefire deal in the Gaza war appears imminent. In the past, such provisional truces sometimes turned permanent. But is this time different?

-Analysis-

Leaders of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that rules Gaza, say a deal is within reach. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he hopes “for good news soon,” while the government meets to discuss “the issue of the release of hostages.”

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Elias Kassem

Gaza And BRICS: Arab Leaders' Visit To China Is Only The Beginning

Frustrated by the United States’ unwavering support for Israel’s war on Gaza, Arab governments have looked at other options to help establish a ceasefire before it becomes too late. First stop: Beijing. Moscow’s role may be more obscure, but no less essential, in building a global coalition that counters the West’s stance.

CAIRO — Call it “the China option.”

The scene Monday in Beijing said a lot, both about the state of the war in Gaza, and the world at large: top diplomats of five Arab countries, all with close ties with the U.S., arrived in the Chinese capital to meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, as part of Arab and Islamic diplomatic efforts to rally global support for a ceasefire.

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Choosing Beijing as the first stop of a tour to the five permanent members of the United Nations’ Security Council shows China’s growing role in the Middle East amid global power competition. It also shows regional frustration from the West’s justification of Israel’s attacks on the Palestinians as “a self-defense,” according to Asharq, a United Arab Emirates-based news outlet.

“Motivating the major countries in the East to play a more effective and influential role may restore balance to the international scene,” wrote Gamal Raif, an Egyptian journalist and political writer, on X, formerly known as Twitter. “China in particular has been seeking for some time to find new workspaces within the international arena.”

The delegation included foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Indonesia, the Palestinian Authority, and the chairman of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

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In The News
Worldcrunch

Worldcrunch Magazine #59 — How The World Sees The War In Gaza

November 20 - November 26, 2023

Here's the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from top international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Dominique Moïsi

Three Scenarios Where The U.S., China Or Russia Winds Up Stronger After The Gaza War

Washington, Moscow and Beijing can all, in different ways, emerge stronger from the war in Gaza war, says French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi. The U.S. has been more present in the Middle East since Oct. 7 — but so has Russia, while China is keeping relatively quiet.

-Analysis-

PARISThe Great Power Triangle: Washington, Moscow, Peking — this was the title of an excellent book published in 1972 by Michel Tatu, a specialist of the USSR and a journalist for French daily Le Monde.

Looking back at this title today, we can wonder what effect the war in Gaza will have on this particular triangle. The conflict between Hamas and Israel is a zero-sum game: Israel can only come out a victor if it puts Hamas out of contention for good. But this is not the case for Washington, Moscow and Beijing, which can — in different ways — all emerge stronger from the conflict.

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Since Oct. 7, the U.S. has returned to the Middle East. Its military commitment, symbolized by the presence of two aircraft carriers, is simply spectacular.

Barack Obama's hesitations in September 2013, when he decided not to enforce the red line that he himself had drawn in Syria, are all but forgotten. Of course, Israel is the United States’ last major ally left in the region. Washington can’t afford to “lose” Jerusalem, as neither Cairo nor Riyadh are fully reliable partners.

Israel, the leading regional military power — much more vulnerable than it thought — needs the United States as much as the U.S. needs it. Joe Biden is drawing double lessons from the guilt of the country’s failure to act in Syria in 2013 and the strategically and symbolically catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Negotiate, Talk, Negotiate — And A First Small Sign That Israel Is Listening

In Qatar, Egypt, Paris or on the phone, negotiators are busy trying to secure the release of hostages, push for "humanitarian pauses", and prepare for the political aftermath of the war. Meanwhile, the war rages on in Gaza.

-Analysis-

PARIS — War is not just the actions of soldiers, but also the movements of negotiators that are sometimes even harder to see.

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In The News
Worldcrunch

Worldcrunch Magazine #58 — Any Way Out?

November 13 - November 19, 2023

Here's the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from top international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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