VATICAN CITY – The Cardinals have been meeting among themselves for more than a week at the pre-Conclave General Congregation inside Vatican halls. But so far, there’s been no speech like the one delivered in 2013 by Jorge Mario Bergoglio to capture the imagination of his fellow Cardinals. The Argentine Cardinal’s appeal to bring the “geographical and existential peripheries to the center of the Church” helped lift him to the two-thirds of the votes necessary to become Pope Francis.
Likewise, no leading candidate has emerged whose name is a program in itself, as Joseph Ratzinger did in 2005 to become Pope Benedict XVI. On Wednesday, the Sistine Chapel will host a College of Cardinals where no “papabile” can yet count on the 89 votes needed to ascend to the Chair of Peter.
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One cardinal over 80 – who is too old to enter the Conclave but has participated in the General Congregation – told La Stampa, that they “talked about issues, not names. We raised concerns, like the management of resources and the crisis of values in the West, that call for a shared program to govern the Church rather than a defined profile of the next pope.”
No one, so far, has been fully convincing. Everyone has strong points and shortcomings. On paper, Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin can count on 40 to 45 votes, maybe more, Bologna’s Cardinal Matteo Zuppi on 25 to 30, Filippino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle about 20. New York’s Timothy Dolan, Ghana’s Peter Turkson, Malta’s Mario Grech, and Florence’s Giuseppe Betori each are supported by ten voters or less.
A veteran Vatican diplomat notes: “The trend in preferences matters. If someone starts with 45 votes and doesn’t gain support in the second round, then everything’s back up in the air. Only a deal or a step back can break the deadlock.”
In the confidential discussions, Parolin’s personal warmth is often praised. He is said to be good at making human connections even with cardinals who are not part of the Roman Curia. Some conservatives see his spearheading the Vatican’s agreement with Beijing on the appointment of bishops as a surrender by the Holy See. Moderates and progressives, on the other hand, credit the Secretary of State for securing spaces of religious freedom in China. He also arranged the first-ever meeting between a pope and the Patriarch of Moscow.
Zuppi’s closeness to the San Egidio movement is viewed by some as a liability, but at the same time, it is through that connection that his experience in humanitarian efforts and peace negotiations across dozens of countries has become known.
Ballots ahead
Tagle and Turkson are seen as representatives of the Asian and African communities in the Vatican, where the number of faithful and vocations is on the rise. But neither has demonstrated real administrative ability.
Betori appeals to those who want a clear break from the Francis era, but is little known outside Italy. Dolan has attracted some support, though he has been hurt by Trump’s endorsement. “Karol Wojtyła (Pope John Paul II) was elected in the midst of the Cold War, thanks to a precise blend of faith and geopolitics,” explains Gian Franco Svidercoschi, former deputy editor of L’Osservatore Romano. “He had the Second Vatican Council, his meetings during Paul VI’s papacy, and the first conclave of 1978 to build his credibility. This time, a very diverse College must work with the absence of a clear frontrunner.”
Tuesday’s schedule includes two pre-conclave sessions, one at 9 a.m. and one at 5 p.m.
The lack of a leading papabile candidate is confirmed by Chilean Cardinal Fernando Natalio Chomalí Garib, who says, “We have 133 names, and anything is possible.”
The Holy Spirit has already chosen, but we are not ready yet.
Vatican official Claudio Gugerotti offers a botanical metaphor: “We are flowers, a little in need of watering, but flowers nonetheless.” Asked if one of these flowers might bloom in the very first vote, the Vatican’s minister for the Eastern Churches responds, “How can we manage it by Wednesday? But after Wednesday, it must bloom. The Holy Spirit can surprise us. We never know, but we need plenty of water.”
Until just a few days ago, many electors were expecting a short conclave. Now, the shared sense is that this gathering will take longer. French Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco reflects: “The Holy Spirit has already chosen, but we are not ready yet. We need more time to pray.”
The atmosphere is reportedly good, but the electors are more diverse than ever.
The optimism of the past few days is starting to fade. The cardinals are beginning to understand they need more time to reach consensus, not only on the direction of the Church after Francis but also on the person best suited to lead it. Several cardinals emphasize the need for more discussion. The atmosphere is reportedly good, but the electors are more diverse than ever, and that is adding complexity. The solution does not seem to be just around the corner.
“The pope’s profile will emerge from the dialogue among the cardinals. The talk of factions is a simplistic view, driven by political thinking,” says former Italian Bishops’ Conference president Angelo Bagnasco. The need for conversation, even in informal settings, around a table or in small groups, means that not all cardinals will celebrate Mass in their Roman titular churches today, as tradition would dictate.
Two electors have not yet arrived in the Eternal City. Since they have not officially declared their absence, the number of participants remains at 133, and the quorum for election is still 89.
The cardinals are expected to arrive at Santa Marta from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, before the start of the Pro Eligendo Papa Mass. That is when the real proceedings will begin. The conclave will be presided over by Parolin, who remains the most likely candidate, at least on paper. Every vote he gains outside of the progressive-conservative binary will be crucial.
Among the names floated as compromise candidates in the event of a deadlock is Protodeacon Dominique Mamberti. A diplomat and jurist, he will be the one to announce Habemus Papam. His name is also being mentioned as a possible candidate for Secretary of State.
