Installation the chimney before the start of the conclave in Vatican City on May 3 Credit: Vatican Media/ROPI via ZUMA

ROME — Every morning, starting at 8:30 a.m., the visible, public side of the grand papal election drama has been unfolding at the entrance to Vatican City. That is when the cardinals pass through the gate, controlled by Swiss Guards, behind the colonnades of St. Peter’s Square, next to the Palace of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

The cardinals’ confidential meetings began the day after Pope Francis died. At first, they focused on the details of the funeral, but their attention soon after shifted to the conclave.

For the past 10 days, at 9:00 a.m., they’ve gathered in the Aula San Paolo Sesto for the pre-conclave. Not only those eligible to vote, (those under 80) , but also the older cardinals.

But first, they must get past the press.

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That is no easy task. Around two dozen of the roughly 5,000 journalists accredited to the Holy See’s press office gather outside the Porta del Petriano. When a cardinal comes into view, easy to spot in his red cap and sash, he is quickly surrounded, unable to move forward.

A German colleague from the Catholic News Agency (KNA) joked on Monday, “It’s like in safari films when the hyenas go after the wild animals!”

And it really does feel that way. With cell phones raised and cameras on their shoulders, reporters shout questions in every language at the cornered Eminence. It makes no difference whether the cardinal is small and slight like Chinese Cardinal Joseph Zen, or commanding like Luxembourg’s Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich.

The KNA editor catches Italian Cardinal Giuseppe Versaldi, 81, who explains what the next pope must do: “Continue the Church’s tradition, but also carry out the pending reforms.”

That sums up the Italians’ message, as they push to see one of their own leading the Church again. It has been decades since a pope came from Italy, the country that had a monopoly on them for centuries. Since Paul VI and John Paul I, both of whom died in 1978, the Italians have been shut out.

Many in the city Rome, and inside the Curia administration that runs the Vatican, still mourn that fact. So, after the Polish John Paul II, the German Benedict XVI, and the Argentine Francis, for the Italians, it is now Pietro Parolin’s turn. He is the current Cardinal Secretary of State, and ever since Francis’ serious illness in February, his name has been circulating across the media.

The common argument, which Die Zeit has heard echoed by cardinals in other European countries — they are allowed to speak to the press as long as they do not reveal pre-conclave details — is that Parolin is a centrist who could bring progressives and conservatives together.

Cardinals attend mass on the ninth day of the ”Novendiali,” nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, in St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican on May 4, 2025, in Vatican City — Photo: Maria Grazia Picciarella/SOPA Images via ZUMA

Wearing blue, and scheming

That sounds very political. And indeed, it fits Parolin’s profile. He is a pure diplomat, not a parish priest, not a bishop. He is not charismatic, but he is a highly skilled mediator.

Is the Church just another form of politics?

But is the Church just another form of politics? Francis, who wielded considerable political influence and was close to both Germany’s Angela Merkel and American Barack Obama, once addressed this issue from St. Peter’s Square on Pentecost. “The Church is neither a political movement nor a well-organized institution. We are not an NGO. When the Church becomes an NGO, it loses its salt, its flavor,” Francis declared. “And when it closes in on itself, it becomes ill. I tell you, I prefer a Church that has had a thousand accidents to one that is sick because it shut itself away from reality!”

So now the Church awaits its next leader. The door to apartment 201 in the Santa Marta guesthouse is sealed with red ribbon and a wax stamp. Only the next pope may break it. The familiar early-morning clatter behind that door used to begin around 4:15 a.m., during Francis’ tenure as an early riser. On the day of his death, nurses helped him out of bed one final time. But he soon felt unwell. A stroke was suspected. They told him he had to go to the hospital and wheeled him toward the elevator. But he never made it to the Vatican hospital. He died in the guesthouse, at home.

But it is far from quiet there now. The nuns still begin preparing breakfast at 5 a.m. Several cardinals have moved in for the pre-conclave, including Oswald Gracias from India, Charles Bo from Myanmar, and Rainer Woelki from Cologne. When the conclave begins on Wednesday, all 133 eligible voters will be present, and space will be tight. So far, there are only 127 rooms available. When asked by Die Zeit whether cardinals might have to share rooms, papal spokesman Matteo Bruni replied dryly, “That would be an ideal opportunity to get to know each other.”

Which camp will prevail

Before the conclave, the nuns working in the guesthouse must once again swear not to speak with any cardinals. But something about this election is different. Sister Raffaella Petrini, a petite Franciscan, is the first woman to lead the governorate, which makes the 56-year-old the administrative head of Vatican City State. But the job also includes a crucial role in preparing the conclave. It is her responsibility to guarantee that the cardinals are fully cut off from the outside world. She must collect their cell phones, install signal jammers, and ensure the security of their food, along with having doctors available in case of emergencies.

Petrini, an economics professor, is among the high-ranking officials in the Roman Church who retain their positions after the pope’s death. These include the Camerlengo, or chamberlain, Cardinal Kevin Farrell; the Vicar General of the Diocese of Rome, Cardinal Baldassare Reina; the Archpriest of St. Peter’s Basilica, Cardinal Mauro Gambetti; and Raffaella Petrini.

The setting up of the Sistine Chapel and installation of the chimney before the start of the conclave on May 3, 2025 in Vatican City — Photo: Vatican Media/ROPI via ZUMA

Pope John Paul II specified in the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis that “the Governorate of Vatican City State must approve the necessary expenses for the period between the death of the Pope and the election of his successor.” The floor of the Sistine Chapel will be protected with foam and wooden planks. Twelve heavy tables will be set up, six on each side of the entrance. In front of Michelangelo’s masterpiece The Last Judgment, the table for the election officials will be placed with the ballot boxes and the Bible on which the cardinals swear: “I call Christ, who will be my judge, to witness that I have chosen the one whom I believe God’s will has pointed to.”

The glossy reference work was compiled by conservatives

Francis has appointed more non-European cardinals than any pope before him. Many of the new voters, from places like Iraq, Pakistan, and Burkina Faso, are attending a conclave for the first time and seem unlikely to be elected themselves. Unlike their counterparts in Europe and North America, they are less accustomed to rallying around a candidate. And yet, without them, and without the many cardinals from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, there will be no new pope. Paragraphs 81 and 82 of the election rules state: “Cardinals must refrain from all forms of negotiation, deals, or promises during the voting.” Anyone who violates that rule risks excommunication. Pope John Paul II ordered these rules to be read aloud.

That alone makes it unlikely that the conclave will unfold the way many journalists imagine it, or the way it is portrayed in the film Conclave, as a pure political chess game.

Still, a book of biographies featuring the papabili, the likely candidates, is already making the rounds. It is being distributed to the cardinals and outlines the Church politics of figures like Fridolin Ambongo Besungo, Mario Grech, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Luis Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, and Gerhard Ludwig Müller. Early reviews suggest the glossy reference work was compiled by conservatives. Whether that camp will prevail remains to be seen.