Time for A MAGA Pope? How Right-Wing Populists Are Angling For A Crucial New Ally In Rome

-Analysis-

BERLIN — It’s the most coveted prize up for grabs this year in the global tug-of-war between liberal and illiberal forces: Which side will produce the future pope? Since Donald Trump’s victory in November, no other election has carried such global significance.

What will the new pope represent? What political direction will he embody? Which forces will he lend his voice and face to?

In the coming weeks, a decision will be made in Rome regarding the most prominent open position available this year on the world stage. Who really knows about the current UN Secretary-General? Who recalls the last speech delivered by the President of the European Commission?

Whoever succeeds the late Pope Francis may not command armies, but his words can shape the world. As discussions and elections take place in the upcoming conclave, the electoral body composed of Cardinals under the age of 80, far more than just the Catholic Church will be at stake. And one man probably knows what outcome he’s hoping for: Donald Trump.

Trump’s declaration of war

With the death of the anti-capitalist and pro-immigration Argentinian at the Holy See, the election of a counter-voice to the late Francis has suddenly become possible.

Shortly after returning to the White House, Trump set the wheels in motion to influence the Vatican’s course in his favor. The Administration nominated Brian Burch, an avowed and vocal opponent of Francis, as the future U.S. ambassador to the Vatican. While ambassadors to the Holy See are traditionally reserved, Burch’s nomination was more of a declaration of war.

As president of the ultra-conservative association CatholicVote, he played a key role in rallying American Catholics to help Trump secure the election in November. Burch has excellent contacts deep within the predominantly conservative U.S. Catholic Bishops’ Conference, whose cardinals will have a significant influence on the outcome of the upcoming conclave. This appointment also demonstrates that Trump has Rome on his radar. Depending on who prevails in the secret ballot process behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, the future pope could also, in some sense, end up being part of Team Trump.

The divide between liberal and illiberal, which has increasingly pervaded the world since Trump’s first election victory in 2016, has been dividing the Catholic Church for much longer.

What a twist: JD Vance secured an audience in Rome the day before Francis’s death

Both sides, therefore, enter the conclave well-equipped, both ideologically and personally. If the Catholic Church conflicts of the last half-century teach us anything for this conclave, it’s that every pope repositions himself ideologically — and also brings his power and influence into the balance of secular controversies.

Francis’s two predecessors, Benedict XVI and John Paul II, tended to equate liberalism with relativism. They worried about a weakening of traditional Catholic values such as marriage and family, as well as a gender identity that recognized only men and women. Their understanding of the Church was based on the principle of clear hierarchies and unambiguous teachings. However, they left no doubt about their support for democratic principles in secular society.

Provoked by the significantly more liberal course of the latest pontiff, a hard right wing of Catholicism mobilized its troops over the past 12 years, both among church members and the clergy, as well as in conservative bishops’ conferences such as those in the United States and on the African continent.

While Pope Francis, for example, began to zigzag his way toward allowing the blessing of LGBTQ+ couples in the Church, the traditional wing agitated against an alleged “gay lobby” in the Curia. Increasingly, ecclesiastical and secular alliances were formed, for example with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Team Trump’s allies are led by Vice President JD Vance, who converted to Catholicism and— what a twist — secured an audience in Rome the day before Francis’s death. Also internationally active is propagandist Steve Bannon, who, on his European trips, attempted to build right-wing Catholic political networks, not least in Rome.

 Worldcrunch Extra! 🗞️

● Know more — Among the many candidates mentioned as possible successors to Pope Francis are several arch-conservative Cardinals who would align with the world’s populist right political leaders like Donald Trump, Viktor Orban and Javier Milei.

Guinean Robert Sarah, 79, is a traditional, Orthodox cardinal known for his staunch opposition to liberal theology, gender ideology, and what he sees as the moral decline of Western secularism. He has also spoken out against Islamic fundamentalism. In 2020, he co-authored a book with the then retired Pope Benedict XVI defending clerical celibacy at the moment when Francis was considering a relaxation of the rules.

Hungary’s Péter Erdő, 72, is a leading conservative candidate, who has been a strong advocate for traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He would represent a big shift away from Francis’s approach. In 2015, Erdő appeared to align himself with Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, when he opposed Francis’s call for churches to take in migrants.

U.S. Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, who has long pushed back against Francis’ stance on gay rights and social justice issues, aligns with the views of Donald Trump. Although Francis marginalized him, even stripping him of his salary and Vatican-subsidised apartment, he’s still popular among conservative Catholic Americans.
— Cecilia Laurent Monpetit

Authoritarianism in the Church

Still, the spectrum between liberal and illiberal is infinitely rich in nuance and subtleties in both church and society. For example, Benedict and John Paul were dogmatists in matters of protecting life but pragmatists in their attitude toward capitalism.

In the conflict between Donald Trump and Pope Francis, however, a new and harsh ideological fault line has recently emerged, one that is increasingly permeating global politics: nationalism versus multilateralism. Francis contrasted the nationalism of “America First” with his internationalism of solidarity with the world’s poor.

The German friend of Francis and future papal elector, Cardinal Reinhard Marx from Munich, therefore recently warned in an interview with Die Zeit how difficult it was for the Church to deal with democracy up until the 20th century: “There was and is a temptation in the Church to become authoritarian.”

So what if the new pope changes sides — if, in the future, it’s not an internationalist but a nationalist who speaks on behalf of more than a billion Catholics worldwide? Vance, for example, sees no contradiction between authoritarian Catholicism and authoritarian nationalism: for him, marriage, family, and nation are equally under God’s special protection. And he’s not alone in this view: even during World War I, clergy from all belligerent nations swore the soldiers of their armies to a divinely ordained victory.

Black box Sistine Chapel

Once the doors of the Sistine Chapel close behind the papal electors, the prayers and the debate begin. While the people who will be allowed to vote in the conclave are known — 135 cardinals from dozens of countries — their positions are anything but fixed. Cardinal Marx openly laments that the late pope appointed a large number of new cardinals but forgot to introduce them to one another.

Looking for a voice to claim moral authority

With a pope who shares his worldview, Team Trump would certainly close an open flank. With allies like Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Marine Le Pen in France, and Alice Weidel in Germany, a nationalistic, right-wing international is expanding its political reach. Together with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, it is waging a global campaign against freedom.

Now all that the group lacks in its arsenal is a voice that can claim moral authority. A new Vicar of Christ would come in handy.