Updated May 7, 2025*
VATICAN CITY — On one side are those who, like Germany’s Cardinal Reinhard Marx and Iraq’s Cardinal Louis Raphaël I Sako, were convinced the conclave won’t drag on.
On the other are the “wait-and-see” types — like Italian curial Cardinal Angelo De Donatis and the conservative Cardinal Rainer Woelki — who felt the ideas in play were “not yet clear” before the conclave began on Wednesday.
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In practice, if the white smoke rises quickly, it’ll mean a name was agreed upon during the pre-conclave meetings. But without a prior consensus, the search for Pope Francis’ successor could be long and drawn-out, potentially resulting in a compromise candidate or even an unexpected outsider.
In conclave lingo, the “time factor” has a single, unmistakable meaning: deal-making is underway.
A Vatican diplomat puts it plainly: “The first agreement reached was Angelo Becciu’s withdrawal from the papal election in exchange for a pardon to be granted after the white smoke and a subsequent appointment to a basilica or religious order.”
Cardinal Becciu, who was convicted of fraud and embezzlement in 2023, announced last week that he was withdrawing from participating in the conclave to elect a new pope for “the good of the church.”
By defusing a potentially explosive issue — one with unpredictable consequences for still-forming alliances — the door has been opened to more decisive deals.
It’s a maneuver reminiscent of 1978, when geopolitical concerns secured the papacy for Poland’s Karol Wojtyła to be elected as John Paul II, backed by Austria’s Franz König who was known for his Ostpolitik work opening to the Eastern Bloc.
The Italian option
That same formula might now be repeated, with an arrangement to favor the election of an Italian Pope. The two main candidates are Cardinal Pietro Parolin — the Vatican’s seasoned Secretary of State and top diplomat — and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, considered to be on the progressive wing of the church, sharing Pope Francis’s concern for the poor and marginalized.
Many are staying on the sidelines for now: “We have excellent relationships with both Parolin and Zuppi,” one said.
“There’s no opposition to either” is a phrase that crops up often among electors. Others saying some version of: “We’re here to choose the person best suited to serve the common good, not to win some kind of contest.”
The key issue is figuring out how many votes can realistically be gathered.
The key issue is figuring out how many votes can realistically be gathered beneath Michelangelo’s frescoed ceiling.
“It’s hard to categorize cardinals whose IDs the gendarmes have to check just to know who they are,” quips an official from a Vatican department. “Italy has a shot at reclaiming the papacy, but its 19 votes aren’t united behind a single candidate, so a deal would have to be struck before the doors to the Sistine Chapel open.”
No rigid factions
Compared to 2005 and 2013, the makeup of the Sacred College today resists neat labels and rigid affiliations.
“In papal elections there have always been strong dualisms, but it was easier then to sort groups and tendencies,” explains Professor Agostino Giovagnoli, a historian at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart. “The General Congregations (pre-Conclave meetings) are precisely where the Church’s governance priorities are thrashed out and potential candidates filtered according to their real chances.”
It was in these very Cardinal gatherings, 12 years ago, that Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio won over his fellow cardinals — still reeling from Benedict XVI’s resignation. This time, the anti-Italian and anti-Curia bias sparked by the VatiLeaks scandal is no longer in play.
Yet the Cardinals casting ballots form an international group whose leanings are hard to read. Add to that the fact that the “state of grace” can radically reshape how an elected pope is perceived.
Aspiring pontiffs can put various offers on the table
“If Parolin doesn’t make it to the papacy, he’ll still likely remain Secretary of State — especially if a non-Italian is elected pope. He knows the workings of the Curia inside and out and has strong institutional connections with foreign ministries and international bodies,” says one cardinal over the age of 80.
Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!
KNOW MORE •The length of a Conclave is determined by how many rounds of ballots are needed for one candidate to receive at least two-thirds of the participating Cardinals’ votes. Only Cardinals younger than 80 (and otherwise eligible to participate) enter the Conclave. This year there will be 134, thus 90 is the two-thirds threshold.
After the first day, when a single ballot takes place, there are two rounds of voting during each morning and each afternoon session. The Catholic News Agency reports that over the last century of Conclaves, the average number of ballots needed has been eight, thus a new Pope typically arrives by the afternoon of the third day.
There are a variety of procedures and rites to assure reliability and secrecy of the vote, including the burning of the hand-written ballots (along with wet straw) after each morning and afternoon session. Black smoke comes from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney, until someone receives the necessary two-thirds, when a chemical is added to the burning ballots that produces the iconic white smoke to let the world know a new Pope has been chosen. —Irene Caselli (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)
Aspiring pontiffs can put various offers on the table, from new appointments to renewed mandates in key Vatican offices.
The time factor plays a crucial role. “The Church can’t afford to project an image of division through a prolonged series of votes, as happened with John XXIII,” adds another Cardinal, referring to the 1958 Conclave.
“The general congregations are meant precisely to avoid deadlock in the conclave. Many electors barely know one another because there haven’t been occasions to connect. There’s no guarantee today’s personal preferences will translate into votes starting May 7.”
Tagle doubts
An old saying goes: “The Pope reigns, but the Secretary of State governs.”
Among the two most credible Italian contenders, both bring solid experience in diplomacy and negotiation — though one comes from a background in the Holy See’s foreign service, and the other from humanitarian and peace work, including with the Sant’Egidio Community and, more recently, the Vatican mission in Ukraine.
“A joint ticket doesn’t require complete agreement — in fact, it often bridges opposing Church ‘schools’ or political lines that, on their own, don’t have the numbers to prevail,” say insiders.
For instance, when it came to dealing with Communist regimes, John Paul II and his first Secretary of State Agostino Casaroli didn’t always see eye to eye, but Casaroli’s expertise proved key in helping the young pontiff broaden the geopolitical reach of his papacy.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, doubts are emerging about the potential managerial capabilities of Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a former archbishop of Manila, who would be the first Asian pope.
The Filipino prelate, once seen as a rising star and a favorite among more progressive circles, faced criticism for his handling of Caritas Internationalis — the Church’s main charitable arm — which underwent a sweeping reorganization after allegations of mismanagement.
As one senior figure put it bluntly: “If someone couldn’t manage Caritas Internationalis, maybe he’s not the right person to be entrusted with the Universal Church.”
*Originally published May 1, 2025, this article was updated May 7 with news of the conclave beginning.
