Here’s How Trump Gets Drawn Into Israel’s War With Iran — Against His Will

-Analysis-

BERLIN — Donald Trump wants nothing to do with Israel’s military strikes against Iran. Or does he? Publicly, at least, the U.S. president initially struck a diplomatic tone: A nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic was still possible, he insisted, and there was no need to risk escalation. He even tried to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from taking military action that could derail negotiations.

Violence was the looming threat in the background, which led to an ultimatum: Iran had to fall in line, or risk the very worst. But Trump seemed to hope for a resolution without bombs. After all, when he took office, he promised to stop all wars and to bring a “a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and totally unpredictable.”

So initially, the U.S. government kept a low profile on Israel’s operation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio merely stated that Washington wasn’t involved and called the Israeli action “unilateral.” U.S. officials were reportedly briefed ahead of time, but perhaps only hours before the strikes — and not on every detail. 

Trump himself — unsurprisingly— claimed afterward that he knew everything. On his platform Truth Social, he framed the attack as the natural outgrowth of his own warnings. He said he’d given the Iranians 60 days to make a deal, and on the 61st day, they struck — and did so “very successfully,” he added, full of praise for Israel.

But this narrative doesn’t fully dispel the impression that Washington was caught off guard. The contradictions are too glaring. How much prior approval Trump gave to Israel’s actions is unclear.

Even now, it’s hard to say how closely coordinated the two governments are — despite Trump supposedly knowing that Israel might hit back even harder soon. And what about reports that Trump vetoed a plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? Israel denies ever planning such an operation. But would Netanyahu even listen to Trump at this point? Who’s really influencing whom?

One thing is clear: The risk that the U.S. will get dragged into this war is far from over.

Israel’s current objective is straightforward: eliminate the nuclear threat posed by Iran — if not topple the regime altogether. And it appears to have the military capacity to inflict serious damage, even claiming air superiority over Tehran. 

“The road is wide open,” an Israeli military spokesperson said. But to deal a truly decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Israel may need the kind of bunker-busting bombs it lacks. That’s one reason Israel is still keen on U.S. involvement.

We’ve got nothing to do with this

Meanwhile, the U.S. is issuing stern warnings to Iran — perhaps in the hope that doing so will keep them out of it. Trump has said that any attack on American targets will be met with “unprecedented” military force. Again, he emphasizes: We’ve got nothing to do with this. 

But in Tehran, the U.S. is seen as Israel’s accomplice no matter what — especially if it’s helping intercept Iranian rockets, which reports suggest it already has.

Trump finds himself partly at the mercy of events. His influence on Netanyahu seems limited. And how he’s meant to navigate between solidarity with Israel — an extremely close ally — and the risk of further escalation is something even his own party, his administration, and his base are split over.

This runs headlong into the isolationist instincts of Trump’s base and their deeply rooted “America First” mindset.

There are the isolationists, led by Vice President JD Vance, who advocate a U.S. retreat from global entanglements and who now worry, perhaps with good reason, that America could once again stumble into a generation-long Middle East conflict it can’t win. On the other hand, there are the staunch pro-Israel hawks, who never had much faith in diplomacy and have long demanded a decisive strike against Iran’s nuclear ambitions — the very strike Israel has now begun.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham may well be correct when he says a “vast majority” of Republicans support the use of military force to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat. But at this moment? Is this what they had in mind — Israel taking matters into its own hands? On Sunday, Graham urged Trump to go “all-in” if that’s what it takes to end Iran’s nuclear program once and for all.

But this runs headlong into the isolationist instincts of Trump’s base and their deeply rooted “America First” mindset. Right-wing activist Charlie Kirk, founder of the youth movement Turning Point USA, and far-right influencer Jack Posobiec are already warning that Trump’s base could fracture ahead of next year’s midterm elections. And Tucker Carlson — former Fox News host and a central figure in the MAGA movement — has gone so far as to urge the president to drop Israel entirely: “Let them fight their own wars.”

Before there’s nothing left

Trump has long leaned toward the isolationist camp, which has also shaped his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine. In May, speaking in Saudi Arabia, he lashed out at the “so-called nation-builders,” who, he said, had destroyed more nations than they had ever rebuilt. 

Still, Trump clings to the hope that diplomacy could prevail.

He dreamed aloud of a Middle East shaped by trade instead of turmoil — where peoples of different nations, religions and beliefs build cities together instead of blowing each other up. That dream now looks more detached from reality than ever.

Still, Trump clings to the hope that diplomacy could prevail. On Truth Social, he struck an optimistic note: “We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!” 

He even pleaded with Iran’s leadership to back down — “before there is nothing left.” But the odds of that happening are slim. Iran’s rulers are unlikely to humiliate themselves by begging for a deal now. Militarily, they can’t do much to counter Israel’s strikes at the moment — but that could make escalation even more tempting. The regime might decide to widen the war — both in the region and against the U.S.

Whether that would be wise is another question. But Trump, still hoping for peace, may yet find himself dragged into war.