-Analysis-
BERLIN — The situation is too serious for gloating. Yet there are so many opportunities to do so. Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize for his supposed knack for ending wars. The U.S. president is convinced that world leaders respect him, maybe even fear him. He has said repeatedly that if he were in charge, there would have been no brutal Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and no Russian invasion of Ukraine. He had promised to end the latter in 24 hours and solve the Middle East conflict at the same time.
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None of that has come to pass. On the contrary: war still rages in Ukraine, Gaza lies in ruins, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly does not care what the American president wants. Two days before another round of talks between Washington and Tehran, Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and military facilities on Friday. Some military leaders and nuclear scientists were deliberately targeted and killed.
Trump does not want Middle East escalation
It is well known that Trump had spoken several times with Netanyahu in recent days to push for more time to negotiate. What is not clear is whether he warned him against launching an attack on Iran or even threatened consequences.
The White House’s first responses suggested that Washington had nothing to do with Israel’s “unilateral” operation. But it seems safe to say they saw it coming: just before Israel’s strike, the U.S. reduced embassy staff in Iraq and at other military posts in the region.
Many will see Israel’s strike as a sign of Trump’s weakness.
Despite his friendly ties with Netanyahu, Trump does not want a new escalation in the Middle East, even though he was the one who pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal during his first term. Talks with Iran, led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had been set for Sunday. At first, U.S. officials insisted the meeting was still on, then came the cancellation from Tehran.
Trump has often warned Iran’s leadership that military action could follow if no deal is struck, although he regularly added that it was not his preferred outcome. Last Wednesday, he admitted his hope of reaching an agreement with the regime was fading. Netanyahu apparently decided not to wait for Trump to run out of patience.
Birthday parade
Many will see Israel’s strike as a sign of Trump’s weakness. His calls for Netanyahu to halt the war in Gaza have had no visible effect. And for Trump, it is probably an especially bitter blow that all this is happening the day before his birthday, the same day he is throwing himself a military parade in the U.S. capital.
His critics are reveling in it. Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser under President Barack Obama, dubbed Trump “the weakest strongman” on X.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said, “Israel’s attack on Iran, clearly intended to scuttle the Trump Administration’s negotiations with Iran, risks a regional war that will likely be catastrophic for America and is further evidence of how little respect world powers — including our own allies — have for President Trump.”
And foreign policy expert Ian Bremmer sneered ironically, “This would never have happened if Trump were president.”
The White House cleared all of Trump’s scheduled appearances for Friday. Instead, his participation in a National Security Council meeting was announced.
“Dangerous consequences”
The stakes are high. U.S. officials now fear Iranian retaliation against American targets in the days ahead, and not without reason. Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned Friday morning, “The Zionist regime’s aggressive actions against Iran could not have been carried out without the coordination and consent of the United States. The U.S. government, as the main backer of this regime, will be held accountable for the dangerous consequences of Israel’s adventurism.”
Will the Iran hawks win out?
In his first remarks after the Iranian strike, Secretary of State Rubio said that Israel had stressed the need for self-defense. What he did not say was whether the U.S. stood shoulder to shoulder with its ally. He simply noted that the U.S. was prepared and warned Iran not to strike American targets.
What language the U.S. chooses in the coming hours and days will be telling. Will the Iran hawks, who never had much faith in talks with the mullahs, win out? Or will Trump side with isolationists like his Vice President, JD Vance, who wants to shrink America’s role in global affairs?
Much will depend on how far the situation escalates. But whatever happens, Trump has been forced into the sidelines on his birthday weekend. He is not going to enjoy it.
