Zelensky Forever? Scouting New Leaders For A Post-War Ukraine

-Analysis-

KYIV — The days of unconditional, widespread public adoration for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are gone — most likely for good.

On the one hand, his approval ratings remain relatively high, and for a segment of the population, Zelensky continues to be the undisputed leader of the country, a symbol of resistance and resilience. But at the same time, his disapproval ratings are also rising. More and more Ukrainians now view Zelensky as politically toxic, vowing never to vote for him under any circumstances.

Some are are jumping to the conclusion that Zelensky has lost his chance of being re-elected president, whenever the next elections take place. Yet that statement is at best premature. It’s important to emphasize: Zelensky’s political future depends largely on the conditions under which peace is achieved.

At present, he continues to show his determination to defend Ukraine’s interests to the very end. His messaging is on point, his actions are generally measured. Mistakes are inevitable, of course — but many factors are beyond his control, especially the chaotic policy of the U.S. and Europe’s unpredictability.

If Ukraine emerges from the war with dignity, Zelensky’s chances of reelection will be entirely realistic. If the country descends into post-war uncertainty and chaos, his most plausible fallback may be his own faction in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament.

Zelensky’s options

In parliamentary elections, Zelensky will likely rely on his personal brand. A new political
project — perhaps a “Zelensky Bloc” — may be created. Ultimately, the name they choose is
not so important at this point. What is clear is that Servant of the People party, in its current form and under its current name (named after the TV series he starred in), will likely fade into the background.

Several recent sociological studies have determined the balance of trust and distrust in
potential election leaders. All of them show roughly the same picture: Zelensky’s personal
rating is high. But his negative balance is also significant — meaning that distrust
toward him is nearly equal to the level of trust.

It’s also important to note that Ukrainian voters’ preferences have been shifting dramatically. For instance, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Zelensky has the highest rating in western Ukraine, a region where such support was unthinkable before the war. This suggests that a large part of the electorate now views him as a conservative national leader.

• The highest balance of trust is recorded in western Ukraine (+27%) and central regions
  (+13%).
• In the south and east, trust and distrust levels are nearly equal, resulting in a neutral
  balance.

This means a Zelensky-named parliamentary faction is certain to emerge. And it will likely win enough seats to remain among the country’s most influential political forces. Yet given his rising disapproval ratings, that success may hit a firm electoral ceiling — one he may not be able to break through.

The ultimate percentage will also depend heavily on whether Zelensky is still president at the time of the parliamentary elections. If the presidential race happens first and a different candidate wins, many voters may shift their loyalty to a new figure. On the other hand, if parliamentary elections come first — or if Zelensky is reelected as president — the size of his future faction could grow significantly.

It’s already clear that Zelensky’s potential party list will be generously filled with military personnel.

Predicting the specific composition of such a faction is nearly impossible at this stage. One
thing is certain: The mistakes of previous election cycles will be taken into account. The next faction will include the most loyal members of the team, who will be reinforced by well-known public figures capable of drawing additional support from the electorate.

It’s already clear that Zelensky’s potential party list will be generously filled with military
personnel and volunteers who have earned public respect. Yet that will not be unique
to his faction. All political forces are expected to do the same. This, on the one hand, will
create a level playing field for all election participants. On the other hand, it will largely
devalue the participation of the military in the electoral process.

A good option for Zelensky could be to refuse to run for president at all.

Will the Servant of the People brand disappear completely? That’s a question to which even the party’s top leadership might not have a definitive answer. It’s quite possible the
name will eventually be filed away in the archives.

Still, some politicians may be tempted to use the well-known brand, announcing sweeping
reforms under its name. The key question is: Who actually owns the party, the brand and the final decisions? In theory, the party could use a convention to announce new leadership and a fresh chapter in its history. By radically renewing the team and bringing in prominent
figures, it could still claim a portion of the electorate — and possibly even win a
parliamentary faction. After all, political brand recognition remains a powerful factor.

Finally, a good option for Zelensky could be to refuse to run for president at all. He has already secured a positive place in the country’s history. While this path currently seems unlikely, it’s not out of the question. Why not?

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general and current ambassador to the UK, has not lost popularity — quite the opposite. His positive approval ratings remain high, while public distrust toward him is consistently low. This trend is unlikely to change, as his current status outside of government means he is not required to make controversial decisions.

The former commander-in-chief’s popularity is based on the inspiration of the first year of
the war. His name is closely associated with that wave of patriotic unity. This memory still
resonates with a large portion of Ukrainian society.

There is some controversy about his actual military achievements, but they are of no interest to the general public. And the topic itself is extremely controversial. What matters to voters is that Ukraine managed to withstand and push back a larger, more powerful aggressor. Zaluzhnyi was at the head of the army. He also went down in history. The rest, as far as most voters are concerned, is irrelevant.

So let’s leave this question aside. The more important question is what Zaluzhnyi has to
offer as a politician. And for now, there’s only one answer: nothing.

Nobody knows Zaluzhnyi’s views the economy, culture or social policy.

He has never expressed any political preferences, nor has he outlined a vision for Ukraine’s ideological direction or peacetime development. Nobody knows — not even Zaluzhnyi himself, perhaps — what his views are on the economy, culture or social policy.

This makes him, unfortunately, yet another risky candidate for the position of president of Ukraine. There have already been several of them in recent history. Past experience has shown us that electing such figures can lead to poor outcomes. In a post-war context, this could well prove disastrous.

What is certain, however, is that should Zaluzhnyi decide to enter the political arena in any
capacity, it would significantly alter the country’s political landscape and balance of power.
There is already a line of those willing to take advantage of his rating — offering in return a
well-known political brand, developed infrastructure, and proven electoral technologies.

Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!

Know more • Presidential elections were scheduled to be held in Ukraine in spring 2024, with incumbent Volodymyr Zelensky potentially facing a re-election campaign. But after Russia invaded the country in February 2022, Ukraine entered a state of martial law whereby the country’s constitution doesn’t allow the holding of national elections.

The Kremlin has since repeatedly used the election postponement to declare that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader, demanding new elections as a condition of a ceasefire deal. This point was repeated earlier this year by U.S. President Donald Trump, who accused Zelensky of “refusing to have elections,” even once calling the Ukrainian president “a dictator.”

While election rumors were swirling this spring in Ukraine, Zelensky signed into law on April 18 the latest extension of martial law and mobilization, which will remain in effect until at least Aug. 6. This means elections are “off the table” until then, Kyiv Post writes. — Anne-Sophie Goninet (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)

It is known that representatives from the political camps of former President Petro Poroshenko, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have reached out to him. Apparently, there were more such proposals that were not publicly disclosed. He definitely turned down Tymoshenko’s offer. As for the others, his response remains unknown.

Petro Poroshenk

It’s no secret that Ukraine’s fifth president, Petro Poroshenk, harbors hopes of becoming its seventh. Whether those hopes are justified is a completely different question. The post-war landscape could in theory produce unpredictable shifts in public sentiment that would make such intentions realistic. But one can’t overlook the fact that his balance of trust and distrust is perhaps the worst among politicians.

The most likely scenario is a repeat of the last election. That is, becoming the head of an
influential faction. There are rumors he’s eyeing the prime minister’s seat under a potential
President Zaluzhnyi. This is plausible, but it’s far too early for certainty. If Zaluzhnyi does
decide to run, his political weight will be higher than that of past politicians. Whether he
would see value in an alliance with Poroshenko remains an open question.

Still, Poroshenko brings more than just charisma to the table. He’s what one might call a
“resourceful” politician — meaning he can offer substantial financial and organizational assets to potential partners. This factor could prove decisive in coalition-building or electoral strategy.

Some analysts speculate that Poroshenko’s chances of winning the presidency will increase if he becomes the target of sanctions from the National Security and Defense Council or faces criminal investigations. It’s a controversial theory. Public distrust toward him is deeply rooted in past corruption scandals. Can new accusations change this balance? Definitely not for the better.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Yulia Tymoshenko, who served as prime minister in 2005, and again from 2007 until 2010, has been sent to the political graveyard more times than one can count — each time with the confident assertion: “Now it’s really over.” And yet, time and again, she has proven her incredible political vitality, seemingly rising from the dead. Writing her off now would be deeply unwise.

The demographic shift may increase her share of the vote in future elections.

This is especially true, given that Ukraine’s political landscape hasn’t just shifted toward a more patriotic electorate; it has also aged. Much of the country’s youth has been taken by war, or has left Ukraine altogether. Meanwhile, the core electorate of Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party has only shrunk due to natural attrition. This demographic shift may actually increase her share of the vote in future elections.

That said, it will be extremely difficult for her to find like-minded allies or form any kind of
effective coalition. A political bloc seems unlikely. It’s far more probable that Batkivshchyna will once again enter the race under Tymoshenko’s sole leadership.

Her greatest threat may come from the other side: new contenders entering her electoral space, namely, independent deputy Dmytro Razumkov. He is aiming to tear away a significant chunk of Batkivshchyna’s voter base. And in this sense, he has good prospects. His youth, energy, and novelty give him a real shot. If his team can run a creative and adaptive campaign, the next Verkhovna Rada could well see a new parliamentary faction.