Updated Jan. 25, 2024 at 3:00 p.m.
-Analysis-
KYIV — Russian propaganda is gearing up to focus on two critical issues related to Ukraine in 2024. First, Moscow is already capitalizing on concerns surrounding the mobilization of additional Ukrainian troops ahead of the two-year anniversary of the invasion.
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The second priority is focused on one man: Kremlin propagandists will be directing large amounts of fire power on trying to undermine the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In May, Zelensky’s five-year term is slated to conclude, and. it’s still unclear if new elections will be held in the midst of an ongoing war. Unlike the detailed provisions in the Ukrainian Constitution regarding the extension of the term of parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, during martial law or a state of emergency, there is a notable absence of specific guidance concerning special provisions for the office of the president.
This vacuum allows for diverse interpretations and large-scale speculations, creating an environment where the legitimacy of Zelensky could become a highly contentious issue.
On one hand, the Constitution stipulates a five-year term for the president; on the other, it empowers the president to continue in office until a newly elected successor assumes the role.
Recognizing that the writers of the Ukrainian Constitution likely didn’t anticipate a full-scale war, one can assume that it is the spirit of the law that holds more significance than its literal interpretation. However, this doesn’t negate the potential challenges to Zelensky’s public legitimacy ahead of the formal completion of his five-year term in May.
Glass house on Bankova Street
This vulnerability will expose the head of state to heightened scrutiny and criticism. Detractors will find new ammunition to spread on social media, monitoring Zelensky’s actions more closely and challenging his decisions with increased fervor. Any error or miscalculations will likely incur a higher cost than before.
Metaphorically, the presidential residence on Bankova Street will transform into a glass house, susceptible to stones thrown not only from Russia but also, potentially, from within Ukraine. While those who trust the head of state won’t entertain notions of Zelensky’s “illegitimacy,” what has largely been strong support since Feb. 24, 2022 will face its toughest tests to date.
The most insidious of all criticisms is that he’s deliberately prolonging the war to stay in power.
Imagine that you’ve always harbored a strong personal dislike for Volodymyr Zelensky. His background as an entertainer entering politics has consistently annoyed you. You voted against him in the spring of 2019, fretted over his election victory, and maintained a negative assessment of his presidency until the day he stood up to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Still you’ve continued to harbor a genuine antipathy toward the man himself.
Fast forward to the spring of 2024, and you’re presented with a menu of carefully crafted theses seeping out from Kremlin propaganda: “Zelensky is no longer legitimate,” “Zelensky has arbitrarily extended his powers,” “Zelensky has become a czar,” “Zelensky has no right to rule the state…”
And, of course, the most insidious of all: “Zelensky is deliberately prolonging the war to stay in power longer.”
Now, faced with these narratives, would you seize them as a long-awaited opportunity to settle scores with someone you’ve always disliked? Would you single out Zelensky, capitalizing on his weakened state? Can you rise above personal grudges, exercise wisdom, and avoid undermining the legitimacy of the president, understanding the potential impact on the future of Ukraine?
Civic maturity
Since February 24, 2022, our society has grappled with the question of where permissible wartime criticism of the government ends and outright solidarity with an external enemy begins.
The spring of 2024 will delineate this border in a whole new way. Criticizing the decisions of the head of state is one thing; asserting that the head of state has no right to make any decisions is another. Challenging specific actions taken by the current president is one thing; denying its legitimacy is quite another.
In the first case, your attacks target the guarantor, while in the second, you’re not just attacking him personally but ultimately are weakening Ukrainian statehood in the midst of a brutal war with Russia.
Pretending that nothing will change for Zelensky in the spring of 2024 would be foolish.
The coming months will serve as a crucial test of civic maturity and political responsibility for all opponents of Volodymyr Zelensky. It will also be decisive for his presidency.
Glass houses
Pretending that nothing will change for Zelensky in the spring of 2024 would be foolish. The president and his team must acknowledge that his public legitimacy will be called into question.
This means finding new approaches to domestic policy, innovative ways to reinforce Ukrainian society, master novel methods of countering Russian propaganda, and experiment with different ways to better communicate with domestic opponents in Ukraine.
And, yes, this means that questioning the head of state during the challenges of wartime does not necessarily mean someone is an enemy of the state.
As the saying goes, those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
