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TOPIC: ukraine

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Will Winter Crack The Western Alliance In Ukraine?

Kyiv's troops are facing bitter cold and snow on the frontline, but the coming season also poses longer term political questions for Ukraine's allies. It may be now or never.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Weather is a weapon of war. And one place where that’s undoubtedly true right now is Ukraine. A record cold wave has gripped the country in recent days, with violent winds in the south that have cut off electricity of areas under both Russian and Ukrainian control. It's a nightmare for troops on the frontline, and survival itself is at stake, with supplies and movement cut off.

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This is the reality of winter warfare in this part of Europe, and important in both tactical and strategic terms. What Ukraine fears most in these circumstances are Russian missile or drone attacks on energy infrastructures, designed to plunge civilian populations into cold and darkness.

The Ukrainian General Staff took advantage of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to Kyiv to ask the West to provide as many air defense systems as possible to protect these vital infrastructures. According to Kyiv, 90% of Russian missile launches are intercepted; but Ukraine claims that Moscow has received new weapon deliveries from North Korea and Iran, and has large amounts of stocks to strike Ukraine in the coming weeks.

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A Profound And Simple Reason That Negotiations Are Not An Option For Ukraine

The escalation of war in the Middle East and the stagnation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive have left many leaders in the West, who once supported Ukraine unequivocally, to look toward ceasefire talks with Russia. For Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Piotr Andrusieczko argues that Ukraine simply cannot afford this.

-Analysis-

KYIVUkraine is fighting for its very existence, and the war will not end soon. What should be done in the face of this reality? How can Kyiv regain its advantage on the front lines?

It's hard to deny that pessimism has been spreading among supporters of the Ukrainian cause, with some even predicting ultimate defeat for Kyiv. It's difficult to agree with this, considering how this war began and what was at stake. Yes, Ukraine has not won yet, but Ukrainians have no choice for now but to continue fighting.

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These assessments are the result of statements by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and an interview with him in the British weekly The Economist, where the General analyzes the causes of failures on the front, notes the transition of the war to the positional phase, and, critically, evaluates the prospects and possibilities of breaking the deadlock.

Earlier, an article appeared in the American weekly TIME analyzing the challenges facing President Volodymyr Zelensky. His responses indicate that he is disappointed with the attitude of Western partners, and at the same time remains so determined that, somewhat lying to himself, he unequivocally believes in victory.

Combined, these two publications sparked discussions about the future course of the conflict and whether Ukraine can win at all.

Some people outright predict that what has been known from the beginning will happen: Russia will ultimately win, and Ukraine has already failed.

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Gaza Ceasefire Extended, Deadly Ukraine Snowstorm, 100% Green Transatlantic Flight

👋 އައްސަލާމު ޢަލައިކުމް*

Welcome to Tuesday, where more hostages and prisoners are expected to be exchanged as the Gaza ceasefire is extended for 48 hours, Indian rescuers are ready to extract the 41 workers trapped in a tunnel since Nov. 12, and the first green transatlantic flight takes off. Meanwhile, Manuel Brug in German daily Die Welt looks at how the emergence of trans performers and storylines in modern opera follows in the genre’s long history of playing with the idea of gender.

[**Assalaamu alaikum - Dhivehi, Maldives]

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War, Corruption And The Overdue Demise Of Ukrainian Oligarchs

The invasion of Russia has forced Ukraine to confront a domestic enemy: corruption and economic control by an insular and unethical elite.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine's all-powerful oligarchs have lost a significant chunk of their wealth and political influence. However, the fight against the corruption that plagues the country is only just beginning.

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On the morning of September 2, several men wearing balaclavas and bullet-proof waistcoats bearing the initials "SBU" arrived at the door of an opulent mansion in Dnipro, Ukraine's fourth largest city. Facing them, his countenance frowning behind thin-rimmed glasses, was the owner of the house, the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.

Officers from the Ukrainian security services had come to hand him a "suspicion notice" as part of an investigation into "fraud" and "money laundering". His home was searched, and shortly afterwards he was remanded in custody, with bail set at 509 million hryvnias, or more than €1.3 million. A photo of the operation published that very morning by the security services was widely shared on social networks and then picked up by various media outlets.

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Russia
Leonid Nevzlin

A Reminder For Israel And Ukraine: Negotiating With Terrorists Never Works

As long as there are criminal regimes with technological, military, and financial capabilities, defeating them militarily is the only route to lasting peace.

-Analysis-

KYIV — The conflict in Israel that began after Hamas launched a major terrorist attack on Israeli soil on October 7 offers striking parallels with the situation in Ukraine. It is not directly comparable to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, but both conflicts were preceded by similar developments.

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Society
Andrea Joly

Meet The Italian Extreme Cyclist Set To Attempt Solo Antarctica Crossing

The Italian cyclist, Omar Di Felice, is setting out across Antarctica in the ultimate test of athletic endurance and mental fortitude. In an interview with Italian daily La Stampa, Di Felice shares how he keeps himself going during the endless hours of total solitude as well as the activism that fuels his extreme adventures.

TURIN — Designer. Writer. Graphic artist. Promoter. Video-maker. Activist. At 42, Omar Di Felice has done it all and continues to do it all. But if his profession had to be given a name, it would be this: "Superman on wheels."

"Extreme cyclist," he suggests, but that wouldn't do justice to the past six years in which his deep love for bicycles has become his full-time job.

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In The News
Anne-Sophie Goninet, Jakob Mieszkowski-Lapping and Chloé Touchard

More Gazans Forced To Evacuate, Biden/Xi Accord, Kardashian Konfusion

👋 Mbote!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Israel opposition leader Yair Lapid calls for Netanyahu to resign, U.S. and China pledge to reopen military communication and fight fentanyl together, and a prestigious exam puts South Korea at a standstill. Meanwhile, Diarrassouba Losseni Togossy in Dakar-based newspaper Financial Afrik cautions against the downside risks of the energy transition in Africa.

[*Lingala, DRC and Republic of the Congo]

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Geopolitics
Héctor Abad Faciolince

How We May End Up Sliding Into The Real "War To End All Wars"

Considering that our "final war" may be arriving isn't so far-fetched when states like Iran, Russia and North Korea are courting confrontation and taking "crazy" risks, a little like the European powers of 1914. But let's proceed with caution.

Updated Nov. 1, 2023 at 6:50 p.m.

-Analysis-

BOGOTÁ — Imagining the arrival of the "final war" could be a hopeful prediction, if we were referring to how humanity may finally be ready to close its long history of bloody conflicts. It would mean that peace has at last come to stay, and we could all live carefree lives in a way the world has never known.

Unfortunately I mean it very differently, in the apocalyptic sense, that the next big war could be the last one, with the losers being the whole human race. Yes, in that scenario, the world would become uninhabitable, and we would die off: all of us, down to the last child in the deepest forests of the Amazon.

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I must admit I have a dreadful feeling that, unbeknownst to ourselves, we are sliding toward World War III. I hope I am mistaken, and this turns out to be mere pessimism, the result of the fears that come with age. If I believed in God, I'd ask Him to make time and reality prove me wrong.

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Geopolitics
Dominique Moïsi

Should We Read The Middle East And Ukraine As A Single Narrative?

For the future of our world, neither the stakes in Ukraine nor Gaza should be underestimated. But understanding the limits of the comparison is important to trying to find a way out of each, says veteran French political scientist Dominique Moïsi.

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Ideas
Janusz Onyszkiewicz

Can Russia Ever Learn To Live Without Its Imperial Ambitions?

Russian ambitions to expand its empire have existed for centuries. But are they doomed to be this way forever? Janusz Onyszkiewicz, the former defense minister of Poland, digs into the history — and the future.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — For Moscow to finally let go of its imperial ambitions, it must lose the war it has been waging in Ukraine. As the history of the last few hundred years shows, this is the only way Russia will change.

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The idealogue at the head of Putinist Russia, Vladislav Surkov, has made his vision of an ideal Russia very clear. In his view, Russia is a country that “having stopped falling, has begun to rebuild itself and returned to the natural and only possible state of a great, growing and land-collecting community of nations."

Surkov says that Russia makes "no promise" of peace. “The immodest role given to our country by universal history does not allow us to leave the stage or remain silent in the crowd," he declared.

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The Endless War
Tetyana Plyatsok

Cruel Deja Vu: To Be Ukrainian In Israel When Hamas Attacks

Among the victims of the recent conflict in Israel are many Ukrainian citizens who fled the Russian invasion and are now finding themselves at the center of another war.

The Oct. 7 attack, with a series of deadly rocket attacks from Gaza and Hamas militants entering Israeli territory to kill civilians and take hostages, has shocked the entire nation. Yet among the frightened Israeli population were some who had seen and felt another invasion less than two years earlier.

They are the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who had relocated to Israel to escape the war between Russia and Ukraine. At least 13 Ukrainian citizens have been reported dead since the conflict began.

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The Ukrainian embassy in Israel organized evacuation flights to Romania, which were taken up by some 500 Ukrainians.

Ukrainian news site Pravda spoke to three Ukrainian women living in Israel to discuss their experiences during the initial days of this new war.

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Economy
Jacques Attali

Rebuilding Ukraine: The U.S. Is Already Way Ahead Of Europe

The war is far from over, but on the other side of the Atlantic, preparations are already underway to ensure American businesses access to this promising market. In Europe, no one is making such necessary preparations, worries Jacques Attali.

PARIS — Sources say the American administration called a recent meeting with the country’s largest business leaders, explaining that when the war in Ukraine is over, it will be time to rebuild the country’s entire infrastructure.

If those American companies want to secure some of these contracts, they must prepare for the major projects ahead. Backed by American capital, the project will be to rebuild a large European country with a highly educated and resilient population destined to join the EU and one day NATO — not to mention a land mass rich in natural resources.

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