-Analysis-
PARIS — In the last 36 hours, a flurry of peace gestures has appeared: a 30-day ceasefire offer starting Monday from Ukraine and its European allies; an invitation from Moscow for direct talks between delegations this Thursday in Istanbul; and finally, a challenge late Sunday from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: let’s meet face to face!
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But what if everyone was bluffing? What if none of the parties were truly serious about their proposal?
That’s the most plausible scenario — because there’s only one person both sides are really trying to convince: Donald Trump, who will have to decide, at the end of this phase, which party is truly the obstacle to peace. Already on Monday, Russia rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposal amid a new barrage of drone attacks on Ukraine, without commenting on the possibility of face-to-face talks.
This rash of proposals follows two contrasting images: first, in Moscow, where Putin hosted his allies Friday for the Victory Day parade, countering those who claim he is isolated and weakened by sanctions.
Then, on Saturday, leaders of four European countries — Germany, France, Poland, and the United Kingdom — traveled to Kyiv to show unwavering support for Zelensky and his war-torn nation. The stage was set for peace offerings.
Putin posturing
It’s been nearly four months since the return to the White House of Trump — he who had promised to resolve the Ukraine conflict in “24 hours.” It’s proven to be more complicated than expected, and here’s why.
Putin is convinced to currently hold a military advantage.
Initially, the U.S. president offered the Kremlin leader every possible concession while pressuring Ukraine — recall the highly uncomfortable Oval Office meeting with Zelensky.
But it wasn’t enough: Putin kept his demands sky-high, especially since he’s convinced to currently hold a military advantage.
Last week, according to leaks in the U.S. press, Trump confided that his frustration was keeping him up at night. At a dinner with campaign donors at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence, he reportedly complained that Putin “wants everything.” That frustration forms the backdrop for the Russian leader’s recent attempts to appear open to peace.
Ball in Trump’s court
Trump has called on both sides to meet immediately. But Moscow has refused the preliminary ceasefire demanded by Kyiv and the Europeans. And it remains to be seen whether Putin will accept Zelensky’s challenge to meet in person. Can Trump resolve these contradictions?
And if talks fail, what conclusion will the U.S. President draw? During the campaign, he had stated that if Russia didn’t play ball, he would support Ukraine like no one ever had before. With that commitment in mind, and encouraged by a renewed European diplomatic push, Ukraine is multiplying its goodwill gestures.
But the core question remains unchanged: are the conditions truly ripe for peace while both sides still believe they can gain ground militarily? Moscow wants to press its advantage — Putin isn’t ready to stop. Ukraine, for its part, wants to shift the balance back in its favor before sitting at the negotiating table. While peace is being discussed, the war goes on.
