Updated July 14, 2025 at 5:40 p.m.*
-Analysis-
TURIN — Is he making the same mistake he made three years ago? In February 2022, Vladimir Putin ultimately decided to invade Ukraine only after convincing himself that neither the United States nor the European Union would do anything to thwart his plans.
There was every reason for him to believe so: the Americans didn’t show him the slightest sign that they would react, and the Europeans — in any case duly informed by Washington of the significant mass of Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine — did not want to be convinced of the reality of the danger.
“They won’t do anything, I can go,” the Russian president appeared to tell himself. He was of course completely mistaken about the strength and speed with which the West would rush to Kyiv’s defense.
That blindness has cost him and Russia dearly. The United States immediately delivered weapons to Ukraine. The Europeans were even more reactive, and quickly began to equip themselves with a common defense system.
Now, it appears a similar dynamic is unfolding. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was in Washington to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday to announce a new plan to send more U.S. weapons to Kyiv, including Patriot missiles. After appearing to shift U.S. position on the conflict, Trump has repeatedly shared his displeasure with Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate a truce.
What does Putin not understand about the West?
Back with his 2022 full-scale invasion, the only real change Putin managed to impose on the ground was the formal annexation of territories formerly controlled by pro-Russian secessionist movements. His navy has been decimated in the Black Sea, and after the strong stimulus of increased military spending, his economy is now showing serious signs of difficulty.
Toll of aggression
For Putin, the toll of this aggression has ultimately been catastrophic. And yet he has now refused the hand Donald Trump extended to him. The American president was willing to recognize the annexation of Crimea, to admit the fait accompli of the integration of Donbas into the Russian Federation, to cut off all aid to Ukraine, and to close the doors of the Atlantic Alliance to Kyiv.
Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!
Know more • Just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged last week to send more more military support for Kyiv, Russia has launched its largest drone attack on the country on Ukraine. Moscow targeted Ukraine with a record 728 drones on Wednesday— the latest in a series of escalating air assaults in recent weeks.
Trump aimed unusually sharp criticism at Vladimir Putin, telling a cabinet meeting he was getting increasingly frustrated with the Russian leader: “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
Last Thursday, Russian launched another 400 drones and 18 missiles on Ukraine in an “an obvious build-up of terror,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Moscow’s sustained assault is now injecting new urgency into questions surrounding Washington’s commitment to defending Kyiv.
— Anne-Sophie Goninet (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)
Just when he was losing ground, Washington offered Putin the chance to save face… And what did he do? He refused. His demands remain maximalist. He wants the demilitarization of Ukraine and the replacement of Volodymyr Zelensky with one of his own men. He wants to secure an indisputable victory that will allow him to establish a protectorate over what was once the empire of the tsars, and by doing so, he wants to intimidate the whole of Europe.
In short, he is convinced that he is strong enough to decline what was a clear opportunity to sign a deal between America and Russia behind the Europeans’ backs.
Trump is unlikely to allow himself to be humiliated by Moscow.
It’s as if Putin has failed to learn anything from the past three years. We seem to be witnessing the Russian president in the process of repeating, perhaps to an even greater extent, the mistake he made in 2022. Unless…?
Unless we still don’t understand what Donald Trump intends to do, now that he realizes Putin doesn’t want peace. He will undoubtedly help Ukraine defend itself from Russian drones and missiles, but will he go so far as to give it the means to appropriately strike Russia’s military infrastructure and force the Kremlin leader into real negotiations?
It is far from certain, because in this case Trump would have to engage in a military showdown with Russia, even though he promised his voters that he would never drag the United States into new wars, not even indirect ones.
Putin may think his dear friend Donald Trump will never take this step, fearing he might weaken on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections. Putin can count on White House prudence, which will limit itself to half-measures. Putin may also think that French, German, Polish, Spanish, and British leaders are all going through a rough patch; that the European Union is eager to assert itself, but doesn’t have the means; and that the far-right he’s close to is making gains in almost every European capital.
This time, the Russian president’s calculations of the landscape aren’t necessarily wrong. Putin, however, is forgetting two crucial things.
A weaker Orbán
The first is that Donald Trump is unlikely to allow himself to be humiliated by Moscow; and if the United States allows the Beijing-Moscow axis to prevail in Ukraine it would convince China of its ability to dominate this century.
The die is still not cast in Washington.
The die is still not cast in Washington. The second thing the Russian president would do well to consider is that his great European ally, Viktor Orbán, is only weakening; also the rise of the European far right does not necessarily give it a chance at actually holding power, and that not everyone in that camp wants Russia to dominate Europe.
Today, as three years ago, Vladimir Putin misunderstands the West, and underestimates us, seeing only the dust in our eyes and not the walls in front of him.
*Originally published July 10, 2025, this article was updated July 14, 2025 with new information about U.S. Patriot missile sales to Ukraine, and enriched media.