Not Just Ukraine — Europe Also Knows It Still Needs The U.S.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Everyone who was shocked by the brutal Oval Office confrontation on Friday between Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, and JD Vance had been hoping for a strong response from Europe. But that expectation overlooked the reality of the power dynamic — hostile or not, the United States remains an indispensable player in European security.

The result was a delicate balancing act in London on Sunday, where leaders from 15 countries gathered alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, fresh from the shocking showdown in Washington. On one hand, there was a push to mend the damage caused by the explosive White House meeting; on the other, a growing urgency to prepare Europe for a future without America’s security umbrella.

These two goals may seem contradictory, but they reflect the reality of a Europe still unable to stand on its own without the American “shield” that has safeguarded it for more than seven decades. Changing this reality overnight is impossible, and Europe is now paying the price for not having prepared sooner.

Too late for repair?

Several European leaders are taking the lead on formulating the right response. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, both of whom visited Washington last week; Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has strong ties with Donald Trump and, more importantly, Elon Musk; and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte of the Netherlands are all leveraging their influence to mend the rift.

Europe would struggle to fill the void if Washington were to cut off support to Ukraine.

Everything would suggest a more forceful response after the verbal onslaught from the U.S. president and vice president against the leader of a wartime ally. But everyone knows Europe would struggle to fill the void if Washington were to cut off financial and, more crucially, military support to Ukraine. Some key American military assets — like air defense systems and missile technology — simply aren’t produced in Europe.

Hence the conclusion of the London summit: try to keep the U.S. engaged, even if it means swallowing their pride in the face of the disgraceful behavior of America’s top leaders.

A Franco-British plan for Ukraine, featuring a one-month ceasefire and the much-discussed security guarantees, will be submitted to Washington in hopes of averting the worst-case scenario from the anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

However, nothing suggests — according to diplomats themselves — that Washington is ready for it.

Europe’s strategic wake-up call

Is this a sign of Europe’s weakness? Let’s call it pragmatism, while waiting for better days. Strengthening Europe was the other major topic of the London meeting, marked by the urgency and gravity of a historic moment.

First, the guests: for defense, there is no European Union, but a European pillar of NATO, without the United States, but with the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, and Turkey. In diplomatic terms, the “willing and able” countries, those who want to and can act. Pro-Russian nations like Orbán’s Hungary were not invited.

The goal is to mobilize significant funds — 200 billion euros initially, as Emmanuel Macron specified to French daily Le Figaro — to finance the European defense effort so that, in the future, Europe can ensure its own security, with or without the United States.

However, that goal is still far off: just a few days ago, Macron mentioned a timeline of five to ten years to reach this objective.

One can regret the lost time, which forces Europeans to turn the other cheek to an America that is making deals with the country that invaded Ukraine and threatens Europe… But the brutality of the U.S. administration is such that this time, the strategic awakening is very real. Late, but real.