-OpEd-
WARSAW — Budapest has opened a new field of conflict with the European Union when it recently eased requirements for Russians and Belarusians to obtain Hungary’s National Card. The residence permit allows them not only to enter Hungary but also the Schengen area.
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The change is part of a long process, the dynamics of which have escaped Poland as well as the entire EU. Europe tends to treat Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán like an unpredictable, but ultimately unthreatening uncle, who always causes a ruckus at the dinner table. The idea that you can always reach an agreement with Orbán is often heard in Brussels.
If Trump gets reelected…
But now, Orbán is rocking the European boat very forcefully. His political appetite is untamed. And his role as the figurative uncle who sometimes shows up in Brussels, only to disappear again to the edges of the EU is no longer enough for him.
His recent tour of Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing showed that he wants to pursue his own foreign policy, which is not in line with EU interests. In the European Parliament, he set up his own fraction, which is now the third-largest bloc.
Orbán’s power is based on two pillars: political and business.
If former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, Orbán would rise to the rank of the highest EU ambassador to the United States.
Building power in the Balkans
What’s more, thanks to oligarchs and to his own family, Orbán has built a vast network of business connections in the Balkans over the past years.
The structure is similar to that used by Russia and China: the government transfers money to private firms, who use it to conduct business affairs, seemingly independent of the state. Hungarian businessmen buy companies in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, strengthening not only economic but also political ties with those countries.
Orbán’s power is therefore based on two pillars: political and business.
Orbán speaks honestly about this, saying “Brussels has left the Balkans to their own fate because Ukraine needs money.” He is trying to fill the gap, and to build power where the EU either does not see its own interests or is unable to pursue them.
Orbán’s power is therefore based on two pillars: political and business. It is not yet clear to what extent this power exists only on paper. Hungary’s difficult economic situation does not change the fact that Orbán is playing a big game. At stake is not only the future of Hungary, but also the victory of thinking that opens Russia’s door to Europe wide open — even without the National Card.
