Updated July 8, 2025 at 6:40pm*
–Analysis–
PARIS — Beware, one war can make you forget another. In recent weeks, while all eyes have been focused on the conflicts raging in the Middle East, there has been no let-up in the war in Ukraine.
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During the last weekend of June alone, Russia carried out its most intense aerial bombardment since its invasion of Ukraine which started more than three years ago: a total of 537 drones, missiles and other explosive devices rained down on the country in the space of just a few hours.
Anti-aircraft defenses destroyed half of them, while the rest fell on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, where the population spent hours in shelters and in the underground metro. In June, the pace of drone and missile attacks was three times that of the same month last year.
Still the most worrying reality right now for Ukrainians is the looming Russian summer offensive.
Exhausted armies
Ukraine estimates that some 50,000 Russian troops are stationed some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Sumy, a regional capital in the north that is now under threat. The Ukrainians are fighting one against three: despite considerable losses, Russia has far more manpower on the battlefield than Ukraine.
Every year at this time of year, offensives resume, but this year Ukraine is clearly the one on the defensive. It is balancing its numerical inferiority with creative responses, such as the deep drone operations in Russia it carried out in recent months.
The Russian strategy is to exhaust the Ukrainian army and weaken its weapons and ammunition stocks, which is its Achilles heel.
No expert is predicting a complete military collapse of Kyiv, but the Russian strategy is clearly to exhaust the Ukrainian army and weaken its weapons and ammunition stocks, which is its Achilles heel. This is where the diplomatic context comes into play: it determines the arms deliveries and the financial and political support that have enabled Ukraine and its army to hold out for three years.
American mood swings to the Kremlin’s benefit
Since Donald Trump took office five months ago, U.S. policy towards Ukraine has been subject to the president’s mood. Swinging from the bullying and humiliation of the Oval Office session with Volodymyr Zelensky in February to a far friendly encounter on the sidelines of last month’s NATO Summit, when Trump met Zelensky again and declared that he “couldn’t have been nicer.”
Trump has resumed commitments for arms deliveries, for now.
This inconstancy on the part of the American president has become a weapon for Vladimir Putin. Trump had honored commitments for arms deliveries dating back to his predecessor Joe Biden up until last week, when he announced a vague pause in certain weapons shipments to Ukraine, citing a review of U.S. defense spending. But in wake of a record Russian drone attack days later, Trump then vowed to bolster military defense shipments to Kyiv.
Above all, Trump is sparing Putin, who is nonetheless responsible for the failure to keep his promise by stopping the war quickly: the Russian president is taking advantage of this ambivalence to bolster his advantages on the front.
The Europeans are about to decide on an 18th package of sanctions against Russia, one of the most severe, diplomats say. And they are reiterating their support for Ukraine as much as they can. But they seem unable to tip the balance decisively without the Americans.
It’s going to be a long, hard summer for the Ukrainians, who are holding out against all odds on this frontline of the chaos that has spread across the world.
*Originally published July 1, 2025, this article was updated July 8, 2025 with new information about Trump’s latest Ukraine policy.
