Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend an official welcoming ceremony in front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend an official welcoming ceremony in front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square on May 16. Sergei Bobylev/TASS/ZUMA

-Analysis-

PARIS — When they met a year ago, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had a conversation in front of the cameras. They agreed that the world was experiencing “changes not seen for 100 years,” and that they, the presidents of Russia and China, were the “driving forces.”

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Putin is back in Beijing on Thursday and Friday, and this statement is still valid. Both men share the analysis that the West is in retreat, and that pressure must not be eased. In an interview with China’s Xinhua news agency, Putin praised the coordination between Moscow and Beijing to “establish a just, multipolar world” — by which he means one that is not dominated by the United States.

The understanding between Putin and Xi is not ideological, as it once was between Stalin and the early Mao; it’s geopolitical. In other words, it’s not just a reaction to current circumstances, because Russia is under sanctions or China is facing a Cold War with the U.S.

The two nations share the objective of challenging the international order inherited from World War II.

China and Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is the most sensitive issue. Xi was in Paris on May 6, and Emmanuel Macron asked him to intervene with his Russian friend. The French president had already asked his Chinese counterpart to do so during a trip to Beijing last year, to no avail.

All indications are that nothing more will happen this time. While China does not supply Russia with weapons, it has become its economic lifeline, with trade up 60% since the Ukraine invasion. It supplies Russia with numerous electronic components and other equipment considered dual-use (civilian and military). Component exports to Central Asia have also exploded, probably as a way of circumventing sanctions.

As we saw in Paris, Xi is promising to prevent the supply of dual-use technologies to Russia, as he does not want his companies to be sanctioned. But in essence, he won’t weaken Putin at a time when the United States is stepping up pressure against Beijing.

Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping in front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square.
Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping in front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square. – Mikhail Metzel/TASS/ZUMA

No-limits friendship

How far will this agreement go? In February 2022, just before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi pledged a “no-limits friendship.” The formula hit the mark; analysts have been looking for the limits of their relationship for the past decade.

If the stakes are the global balance of power, Moscow and Beijing can go far together.

In fact, it has its limits. It’s not a military alliance like NATO is for the West; China is not involved with Russia in Ukraine — “It’s not my war,” Xi told Macron last year.

And China and Russia don’t have the same economic model, which prevents them from going too far. Russia sells oil and gas, while China is committed to globalization: it needs to produce and trade, including with its adversaries.

But if the stakes are the global balance of power, Moscow and Beijing can go far together. That puts into perspective Xi’s recent declarations of friendship in Paris, dictated by the two countries’ well-understood interests on a number of issues. But for Xi, the serious business is happening right now in Beijing, with Putin.