-Analysis-
Russia’s attacks Sunday on civilian targets in Sumy “crosses any line of decency.” That was the reaction by General Keith Kellogg, the White House envoy for negotiations in Ukraine — a remark that likely expresses the highest level of disgust possible in diplomatic language.
The bombing of the center of the northeastern Ukrainian city with two Russian ballistic missiles wasn’t just a monstrous act of war against civilians. It was blatantly intentional in every detail: the choice of the target (a square outside the local university), the exact timing at 10:15 a.m., and the date — Palm Sunday.
Everything was orchestrated to maximize the death toll, using the chilling “double tap” tactic: the first missile hits the square, and the second follows a few minutes later — just as rescuers, police, ambulances, and bystanders have rushed to the scene — exploding mid-air and scattering cluster munitions.
It was a calculated massacre — just like the one in Kryvyi Rih a few days earlier, when a missile struck another “strategic target”: a children’s playground.
Russia has never shown restraint in striking residential neighborhoods, civilian infrastructure or any other peaceful Ukrainian residents. But the surge in attacks in recent weeks is far too consistent to consider it as a mere coincidence.
Just on Sunday, the carnage in Sumy overshadowed other raids: in Semenivka, Chernihiv region, Russian drones hit the local hospital, injuring a nurse; in Kharkiv, a drone crashed into a kindergarten, which was thankfully empty; in Kherson, three civilians — including two elderly women — were killed by artillery fire.
It’s impossible not to see this escalation as both deliberate and symbolic — coming just as Russian and American envoys resume negotiations.
The attack on Kryvyi Rih came after Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev flew to Washington — granted a special suspension of sanctions so he could obtain a visa — for lengthy talks with Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.
Almost schizophrenic?
The strike on Sumy was launched after Witkoff traveled to St. Petersburg, where he met with Vladimir Putin for four and a half hours, bidding him farewell with a hand over his heart.
At first glance, it all seems almost schizophrenic: ramping up military aggression just as the new U.S. administration offers Putin unprecedented overtures.
“Russia alone wanted this war. Today, it is clear that it is Russia alone that chooses to pursue it,” French President Emmanuel Macron declared on Sunday, pointingly adding that the Kremlin has shown “disregard for human life, international law, and President Trump’s diplomatic efforts.”
A chilling message
Trump himself was name-checked on Sunday by numerous Ukrainian and European politicians, seemingly in a bid to push him into action against a Russia that is clearly rebuffing his diplomacy.
But if there’s any logic at all behind Putin’s strategy, it might be this: to terrorize the Ukrainian people and send President Volodymyr Zelensky and his citizens a chilling message — that the worst is yet to come, and the cost of resistance will only keep rising.
Any hope for a ceasefire has so far existed only in Trump’s imagination.
Back when Joe Biden was in the White House, every civilian massacre only reinforced Washington’s conviction that Putin was a “killer” who had to be stopped. But with Trump, the calculus may have flipped: the Republican has repeatedly vowed to “end the war” quickly — not to restore justice or uphold the rule of law. His envoy Witkoff has even publicly defended some of Putin’s territorial demands.
In truth, any hope for a ceasefire has so far existed only in Trump’s imagination.
The Kremlin has never once hinted at wanting to end the war without the complete capitulation of Ukraine. “Putin can’t afford a ceasefire without territorial gains — it would be seen as a moral defeat by his hardline supporters,” writes exiled Russian political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov.
What Putin risks
Ukraine, for its part, will never agree to surrender territories currently occupied by Russia, which are still home to at least a million Ukrainian citizens.
All of this means that the only way to force Kyiv into concessions is to subject it to an even bloodier, more relentless campaign of civilian massacres — more brutal than what even Western public opinion has sadly grown used to after more than three years since the full-scale invasion.
Yes, by escalating the bombings, Putin risks provoking Trump’s wrath eventually. But something in his backchannel dealings with Witkoff seems to suggest he considers that risk manageable — a risk worth taking if it means he can do what he’s always intended to do: keep the war going.
