-Analysis-
KYIV — Russia is searching for an answer to a new reality — one where a jet ski and a Chinese drone can destroy an air defense unit. It’s the reality of a battlefield that has become three-dimensional.
If Ukraine and the European Union are producing and purchasing drones at a record pace, it stands to reason that, eventually, Russia will begin to form specialized units — born from improvisation — for the drone age.
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Later, Moscow’s defense industry will step in, replacing golf buggies with low-profile vehicles designed to outrun human reaction time. Instead of improvised pump-action weapons, they’ll have something with cylinder and buckshot cartridges. Beneath it all, perhaps even a net — a last-ditch chance to hurl at an FPV (first-person view) drone five meters away and jam its rotors.
The Russian defense establishment will search for a response to this new reality. From above and from below. It has always been this way with militaries, and it always will.
During the Pacific War, Japan had elite naval aviation — ace pilots and the world’s largest fleet of heavy aircraft carriers, their “soaring cranes.” This elite force was eventually broken “from above” by the Allies — and their cheaper escort carriers and ordinary pilots with basic training.
World War II precedents
It was a complex program with a tension throughout the country, a shift to rationing and mobilization of women’s labor, along with fuel and tire quotas. However, there were months when several escort aircraft carriers were launched at once. Of the 155 aircraft carriers launched by the U.S. in World War II, 122 were small escort carriers.
They fought against submarines, protected convoys, and enabled the U.S. to establish and defend forward bases on Pacific islands and atolls.
Yes, American pilots shot down fewer Japanese aces per sortie and suffered greater losses, but thanks to accelerated pilot training and massive industrial production, they defeated the Japanese Air Force. In the Battle of the Philippine Sea, the U.S. not only outnumbered the Japanese, but also caught up in skill, shooting down dozens of Imperial Navy aircraft.
In Germany, to counter strategic bombing raids, the Luftwaffe relied on short-range fighters. They were overwhelmed by the sheer density of aircraft, fire, and even improvised command systems aboard the B-17 “Flying Fortresses.”
It’s a pattern that goes back centuries.
From “below” (pilots wanted to live)—they increased the caliber of machine guns to 12.7mm (from the initial 7.62), added armor, pressured logistics to install electric drives, twin barrels, and compensating sights.
From “above”: night flights and fighter escort missions with drop tanks, total destruction of cities including historic centers, and countering interceptor aircraft.
It’s a pattern that goes back centuries. Specialists solving tunnel warfare in Vietnam, boarding tactics for sailboats, the planting of mines under walls.
Now it’s happening again.
Russian soldiers using drones. Photo: Alexei Konovalov/TASS/ZUMA
Logistics & cannon fodder
Logistics — roads are now centrally reinforced with netting, drones are supplied regularly, along with motorcycles or buggies loaded with mines.
Even units composed of wounded or disabled soldiers — yes, really. It’s stupid, absurd, material for a bad joke: they strap pouches and gear onto a wounded man, and he limps forward. Just like that robot shown to Putin once.
But there’s nothing funny about it. Russia is in fact deploying a kind of bio-robot: men who cut their own throats with knives to avoid capture and limp to load ammunition into a grenade launcher.
Russia throws convicts and others at Ukraine’s defense positions, as cannon fodder: deadbeat fathers, repeat offenders, anyone who’s either threatened with prison term or lured in by contract money.
Sometimes the carrier is killed along the way, and sometimes he makes it — bringing grenades or satchel charges that allow Russian troops to blow up well-dug-in bunkers with proper curvature, shrapnel protection, and camouflage netting. They breach with explosives, then storm in.
It’s just another tactical adaptation to the new conditions. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t.
There are specialized assault troops—those who can enter strike zones wearing good anti shrapnel armor, hide under thermal camo blankets, and are trained in anti-aircraft fire. Others crawl through gas pipelines to dig tunnels and plant explosive under the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Underground mine warfare is another attempt to counter the swarms of drones, satellites and the ever-watchful eye of cameras.
Then there are the assault troops on motorcycles. Not all of them are disposable — at least not yet. These are not actually assault troops anymore; more like last-mile logistics and a way to rapidly increase manpower at the right time.
On the fly
You get the picture. Rock-paper-scissors — then add a backyard well, a dog in a kennel, and make up the rules on the fly.
It’s a three-dimensional battlefield, with a shortage of people, ammunition and conventional weapons — but with commercial drones, buggies that can drive around strongpoints, motorcycles and mules for supply runs, carriers, including the wounded, glide bombs (KABs), and integrated recon-strike drone systems.
And this is one of the key reasons why Europe is finally arming itself in earnest.
Sanctions and embargoes won’t stop it.
There’s a growing awareness that Russia can still mobilize another million troops, equip them with Iranian drones and North Korean shells — so in the end, it wouldn’t be a bug, but a feature.
Kim Jong-un will send more artillery systems and a few thousand people if necessary. China will keep sending buggies, motorcycles, drone kits, and machine tools through Kazakhstan by train.
Sanctions and embargoes won’t stop it — at least not in the coming months. Raw materials and money will find their way.
Time is ticking
Yes, the advances are slow, with heavy losses, and so far the strike range of tactical drones is about 30 kilometers. But nothing is impossible—if the will is strong enough.
Moscow understands one thing very clearly: there is not much time left before Europe’s defense industry gains momentum. Hence the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and joint military exercise planned there for autumn.
As long as Moscow still has experienced pilots and artillery — and the EU has only industry, but no core of trained pilots or advanced electronic warfare units — Russia may try to push again from the north into Ukraine, or pressure the EU directly as our rear.
That’s why they’ve placed the “tactical nuclear weapon” piece on the field — to deter anyone from escalating with airpower while Russian forces gather near Minsk.
The grinding gears of war are turning.
Europe sees the risk. That’s why Denmark is introducing compulsory service for women next year, Sweden is calling up conscripts and Germany is debating bringing back compulsory service. That’s also why Germany is preparing a high-readiness division in early 2025 for deployment to NATO’s eastern flank, and planning to increase its standing forces by another 30,000 troops.
And this explains the acceleration of certain Airbus projects. For instance, a former flying target has been turned into a platform capable of chasing down Shaheds within a 100-kilometer radius and shooting them down with air-to-air missiles. It parachutes down, can be rearmed, and launched again by catapult.
The grinding gears of war are turning, and no scent of a quick peace in the air. It smells instead like something Europe has already lived through — twice — in the past century.
