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BERLIN — So now, once again, they want to settle things themselves.
Donald Trump finally got his direct line to Vladimir Putin with Tuesday’s phone call. The U.S. President had indicated prior to the call that the conversation would include discussions of “dividing certain assets” between Russia and Ukraine, about “land” and “power plants.” In other words, a call about the kind of peace deal Trump understands — a quick and easy solution, even if it is Ukraine, the country under attack, that has to pay the price.
Nothing more, but also nothing less. “We want to see if we can bring the war to an end.”
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But what is really going on between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin? The U.S. president does not officially see himself as being on Russia’s side, and in his view, everything he is doing is perfectly reasonable. He is using mafia-style pressure to force Ukraine into so-called peace negotiations, whose humiliating outcome he already seems to anticipate. That is something the man in Moscow will no doubt appreciate, as long as he does not have to make any compromises himself.
A strange fascination
Trump, for his part, rejects the idea that he is acting as the most powerful Western agent on behalf of the Russian dictator. “I think I’ve been very tough to Russia. Tougher than anybody’s ever been to Russia, if you think about it,” he insisted once again in a recent Fox News interview.
He has said this many times before. Just because he recently threatened sanctions again? Or because he resumed military aid and intelligence support for Ukraine? It is hardly reassuring when the U.S. president justifies his temporary suspension of aid by saying, “Well, (Ukraine) might not survive anyway.”
Where does Trump’s strange fascination with Russia and the Kremlin come from? It has been on display for years and shaped his entire first term in office. It started with Russian interference in the 2016 election — in his favor. It includes the ongoing suspicion that Trump himself conspired with Russian allies. It also covers the extensive special investigations and his repeated attempts to obstruct them.
As is often the case with Trump, not everything he does and says makes sense.
His first impeachment trial in early 2020, which ended when Senate Republicans refused to acknowledge his abuse of power, was part of the same pattern. That case involved Trump’s pressure campaign on the Ukrainian government, blackmailing them into launching baseless investigations to smear his rival Joe Biden. The goal was to revive the false claim that Ukraine, not Russia, had interfered in the 2016 election, and that it had done so on behalf of the Democrats. That theory had already been widely debunked. Yet Trump called all accusations against him a “WITCH HUNT” and dismissed the entire Russia investigation as a “HOAX.”
Trump’s relationship with Russia has always been complicated. As is often the case with him, not everything he does and says makes sense. Some things simply defy explanation. But at least two major factors can help us understand his connection to Putin: his love of power and his love of money.
A very extravagant man
For Putin, supporting Trump was a logical move. It made sense to encourage his rise to the White House, knowing that Trump viewed Russia and the world very differently from Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. “A very extravagant man, very talented,” Putin once called him.
At the very least, Putin could count on Trump’s presence in office to shake confidence in democracy, turn American politics inward, and deal a blow to the Western-led global order. That was true during both of Trump’s campaigns, and it remains true now.
For Trump, the deal was simple. “If he says great things about me, I will say great things about him.” Before the 2016 election, he explained in an NBC interview, “The man has very strong control over his country.” He admitted that he did not like Russia’s political system, but still, Putin was a “leader” with “82% approval.”
He is impressed by power without the hassle of liberal democracy
Trump has always had a soft spot for strongmen. He has praised China’s Xi Jinping for his lifetime rule, joking that “maybe we should try that sometime.” He has spoken fondly of the “beautiful letters” he exchanged with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, even claiming, “We fell in love.” He is impressed by two things above all else: power without the hassle of liberal democracy and the kind of near-religious reverence from the people that only an autocratic system can enforce.
That does not necessarily mean Trump sees all these leaders as allies. He still considers China, for instance, a far greater threat to U.S. interests. He does not give Russia a free pass either: he took an aggressive stance against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
But whenever he deals with foreign leaders, it is always personal, from one ruler to another. Just like in the past, he believes things can be settled between the two of them.
A “real man”
Ultimately, they see the world in much the same way. America First, Russia First … and China close behind. The weak must watch their backs. Those who show respect can get by. Those who have something valuable to offer might get a deal. The few powerful players decide who controls which territories. Things may get messy along the way, but in the end, the strongest will prevail — even against each other. Russia needs a strategic gift to keep China in check. Ukraine’s natural resources? Perhaps a bargaining chip.
Trump seems to have all this in mind when he says he has a “very good relationship” with Putin. The Kremlin leader, in turn, knows exactly how to stroke the American’s ego. He plays into Trump’s belief that the 2020 election was stolen from him, something Trump desperately clings to. He praises Trump’s reaction to last year’s assassination attempt, saying he acted “like a real man.” He has also described their relationship as “pragmatic and trusting.”
The two leaders have had private conversations that remain a mystery
That was evident at the Helsinki summit in July 2018. The meeting was a gift to Putin, who was desperate to be seen as an equal to the United States again. It was mostly for show, but in the end, Trump stood next to Putin and publicly sided with him against his own intelligence agencies. Asked about Russian election interference, Trump said, “President Putin was strong and convincing in his denial.” Russia’s foreign minister later called the summit “better than super.”
The two leaders have had private conversations that remain a mystery. At the 2017 G20 summit in Hamburg, Trump reportedly took his interpreter’s notes after speaking with Putin, ensuring nothing would leak. At the 2018 G20 in Buenos Aires, they met without translators or any U.S. officials present.
This raises the same questions as the investigations into Russian election interference. What other meetings have gone undisclosed? If everything was so harmless, why go to such lengths to keep it secret?
What does the Kremlin have on Trump?
Admiration and a shared worldview may not be the only factors at play. The long investigations into Trump’s first term never fully dispelled the suspicion that he was compromised in some way. One theory, dating back to 2013, is that Russian intelligence services have long had leverage over him. It could be something from his past — dirty parties with prostitutes, shady business deals, ties to the Russian mafia. Something that allows them to apply pressure even now.
These allegations became particularly detailed in the so-called Steele dossier, compiled by Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer. It claimed that Russia had been cultivating Trump for years and that they had compromising footage of him engaged in “unorthodox” sexual activities in a Moscow hotel.
Trump has long sought business deals in Russia,
Trump’s financial history is another piece of the puzzle. He has long sought business deals in Russia, registering trademarks there since the 1990s. His son, Donald Jr., admitted in 2008 that they had “a lot of money flowing from Russia.” His other son, Eric, reportedly claimed in 2014 (talking about golf courses), “We don’t depend on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.”
Perhaps that is the strongest link between Trump and Russia. Not ideology, not admiration, but money — money from oligarchs with ties to the Kremlin, operating somewhere between organized crime, intelligence services, and politics.
Trump insists his business dealings in Russia were just business, but in a country like Russia, politics and business are deeply intertwined. It is no wonder he wants to replicate that model in the United States. Putin could quickly become an enemy if Trump feels his personal interests are threatened. But for now, it looks like he sees an opportunity to learn from him.
